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 The first "Star Wars" movie in a decade will likely haul in
between $180 million and $223 million in the United States and
Canada from its Thursday night debut through Sunday, experts
said after the film scored a 97 percent positive rating on
review aggregation site Rotten Tomatoes.
But to become one of the top three biggest ever movies worldwide
over the long haul, The Force will need to work its power on
China, where the movie opens in January.
The current all-time box office champ is 2009's "Avatar" with
$2.8 billion in global ticket sales, followed by the 1997 movie
"Titanic" with $2.2 billion.
"The Force Awakens" needs repeat customers in China to reach
those numbers. The last "Star Wars" film, 2005's "Revenge of the
Sith," collected just $9 million in China.
"That all depends on China,” said Jeff Bock, senior box office
analyst at Exhibitor Relations Co. “Outside of 'Avatar,' sci-fi
hasn’t had a really good track record overseas.”
The positive reviews will draw people outside of the rabid "Star
Wars" fan base, said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at
Rentrak.
"That's what's going to get it into the billion-dollar club,
then the two-billion-dollar club," he said. "Even more
important, this sets the stage and the tone for the whole
rebooted franchise."
The long-term success of "Force Awakens" is crucial for Disney,
which paid $4 billion in 2012 for "Star Wars" producer Lucasfilm
and plans several related movies and theme park attractions.
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In North America, the big question this weekend is whether The Force
can defeat a herd of dinosaurs. "Jurassic World" debuted with $208.8
million in domestic theaters in June. No movie opening in December,
which is slower than the summer, has come close to that level.
"'Star Wars' fans want ownership of this record," Bock said.
Advance ticket sales have been "astounding," said Dave Hollis,
Disney's head of theatrical distribution. But he added that millions
of seats remain available for this weekend.
"Theaters have been continually adding shows to accommodate demand,"
he said.
"Force Awakens" powered ahead of "Jurassic World" in social media
comparisons from BoxOffice.com, with more than 739,000 Twitter
mentions in the past five days, nearly triple the dinosaur film's
253,000.
(Reporting by Lisa Richwine; Editing by Jill Serjeant and Jonathan
Oatis)
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