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[December 23, 2015]
By Ahmad Ghaddar
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on
Wednesday after an unexpected fall in U.S. crude inventories but
remained not far above 11-year lows as supplies remain abundant and as
OPEC lowered the demand outlook for its exports.
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U.S. crude futures briefly traded above benchmark Brent prices, a
trading pattern rarely seen over the last five years.
At 1035 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 41 cents at $36.52 a
barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures <CLc1> were up
33 cents at $36.47.
A day earlier Brent touched $35.98, its lowest since July 2004.
The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in a
report on Wednesday forecast that demand for its crude would be
lower in 2020 than in 2016 as rival producers prove more resilient
than expected in a low oil price environment.
It forecast 2020 demand for OPEC crude at 30.7 million barrels per
day (bpd) versus 30.9 million bpd in 2016 and about 1 million bpd
less than it is currently producing.
OPEC raised its forecast for tight oil output to 5.19 million bpd in
2020, up from 4.50 million bpd in its 2014 report.
In a sign of growing competition for market share among OPEC members
in Asia, Iraq signed a $1.4 billion deal to supply 160,000 bpd to
Indian refiners Reliance and Indian Oil Corp <ICO.NS>.
Iran is expected to add 500,000 bpd of crude exports next year and
Iranian officials have already met with Indian refiners seeking
proposals on how to make their crude more competitive.
On Wednesday, Brent traded as low as $36.28 a barrel, flipping WTI
from a long-standing discount into a slight premium over the
international benchmark for the first time since a short period in
November 2014.
"The move with WTI trading above Brent is not fundamentally
justified. It is overdone and you are likely to see some correction
in that when markets return to some kind of normality in terms of
volumes," said Virendra Chauhan, analyst at oil consultancy Energy
Aspects.
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U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels last week to
486.7 million, data published by the American Petroleum Institute
showed on Tuesday. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.1 million
barrels.
Official inventory data will be published on Wednesday.
"Inventories remain very, very high relative to the previous year
and relative to the five-year norm," Chauhan said.
Since 2010, U.S. petroleum imports have fallen from a peak of almost
14 million barrels per day (bpd) to around 9 million bpd, government
data shows.
But as shale output dips and the government eases restrictions on
crude exports, the U.S. market could tighten while global supplies
swell on sustained high output from Russia and the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Although no immediate large-scale exports are expected, some U.S.
oil will likely flow from the United States into the global market
next year.
(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore; editing by
Jason Neely)
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