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 Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will head to his first European summit
on Thursday duly warned that it will be near impossible, as Athens
wants, to rip up pledges made during the country's four-year
international bailout. Tsipras and his aides were also advised to
learn the ways of diplomatic custom.
"Friendship requires telling things as they are," French Finance
Minister Michel Sapin told Reuters after meeting his Greek
counterpart Yanis Varoufakis last Sunday. "We must avoid
misunderstandings and make sure all, and especially the Greek side,
understand how things are."
The positions taken this past week raise pressure on Tsipras to
abandon the rhetoric that got him elected. Other European capitals
must decide how much they are willing to compromise to keep Greece
in the euro. France and Italy, widely perceived as Greece's natural
allies, will have to think how far they want to go to facilitate a
deal.
“I hope that this European tour has helped them see what others are
prepared to do – and not do," said one European official in
Brussels.
Tsipras and Varoufakis declined to comment for this article.
There isn't much time. Greece's bailout ends on February 28. Athens
says it doesn't want an extension, rather a bridge loan from Europe
while it comes up with a new plan for the country. So far, the
answer has been no.
Yet without new aid, the Greek state will be starved of funds. Nine
billion euros were slated to arrive this year, largely from the
International Monetary Fund. Tax revenues are shrinking, and
privatizations have been halted. Analysts at Unicredit say the state
could run out of money by March.
DIPLOMATIC BALANCING-ACT
The clearest message to Greece this past week came, as expected,
from Germany.
During a news conference with Greek Finance Minister Yanis
Varoufakis in Berlin, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble
dismissed Greece's request for any bridge funding and insisted that
Athens implement existing bailout agreements.
The news conference was marked by the absence of cordial chit chat
or eye contact between the 73-year-old brown-suited German and his
53-year-old open-shirted Greek guest.
In Paris and Rome, the message was more nuanced.
Within southern Europe, France and Italy would appear to be Greece's
natural allies. They are run by center-left governments and that
have been pushing their European partners to adopt a more
growth-oriented policy for the region.
Both have applauded Tsipras' victory as a triumph of the people's
will over suffocating austerity.
French President Francois Hollande's administration has taken on the
role of early facilitator for Tsipras: In Paris last Sunday, Finance
Minister Michel Sapin, after meeting Varoufakis, sent a text message
to Schaeuble asking him to meet the Greek finance minister,
according to a French official.
During a lengthy news conference after they met in Rome on Tuesday,
Italian Premier Matteo Renzi hailed Tsipras for bringing a "message
of hope, not just fear" to Europe.
The news conference brimmed with mutual compliments and references
to cultural similarities. Renzi referred to his high school ancient
Greek classes and gifted Tsipras a tie. The two joked that the Greek
leader would start wearing one once Greek's debt woes are over.
Both men are 40. They have taken their countries' political
establishment by storm. They govern countries that have Europe's
biggest and second-biggest debt as a percentage of output.
Crucially, both see themselves as champions of a lost generation.
Italians born in 1970 will pay 50 percent more in taxes as a
percentage of their lifetime income than those born in 1952,
according to Bank of Italy research. They will receive half the
pension benefits that current 60-somethings do now.
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"We are the same age, and our generation has been the buffer of bad
political choices," Tsipras said.
Yet for Italy and France, Syriza also poses a risk. Hollande and
Renzi are center-left leaders who, under pressure from Europe and
economic downturns, are trying to embark on market-friendly reforms.
The success of Syriza, with its far-left, anti-market rhetoric,
could undermine their efforts.
"If Tsipras manages to push his programs against privileges,
pressure on Renzi to pivot to the left may grow, shifting the focus
to Italy's wealthier households and leaving his labor reforms in
limbo," Francesco Galietti, chief executive of public policy
analysis firm Policy Sonar, said in a research note.
The risks explain why Hollande and Renzi were guarded in their
support for Tsipras. "We want to give Greece a hand, which doesn't
mean we'll always agree with them," Renzi said.
EDUCATION
Ahead of Thursday's EU summit, Greece's new leaders also got no
shortage of diplomatic education.
Several officials who attended the meetings commented on the lack of
experience of international affairs exhibited by Greece's new
ministers, and their entourages. Two said they were struck by the
lack of knowledge of EU institutions and recent decisions.
"You have the impression that [the Greek delegations] are on quite a
steep learning curve," said one top European official.
Tsipras and other Greek officials say they carry the democratic
legitimacy of a resounding electoral victory. A government official
said sometimes it was an advantage to be inexperienced.
Several European policymakers told the Greeks it was important to
understand the views of populations in other European countries.
In Rome on Tuesday, Economy Minister Padoan lunched with Varoufakis.
Over a meal of marinated anchovies and ring pasta with clams, the
65-year-old minister engaged his tablemate over the concept of trust
and how trust can be gained, in part by communication, according to
a person familiar with the meeting.
"We talked less about technical solutions and more about language
and common values, and how to use European institutions to find a
common solution," Padoan said in the interview with Italian daily
L'Avvenire on Friday.
In Brussels, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was
affectionate toward Tsipras, kissing him on the cheek and taking the
new Greek leader by hand.
Behind the cameras, the 60-year-old Juncker offered the younger
Tsipras a tutorial on the ins and outs of the European Union,
according to one European official.
"Tsipras was very receptive," the official said.
(Additional reporting by Paul Carrel, Alastair Macdonald and
Jean-Baptiste Vey; editing by Janet McBride)
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