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 That leaves a potential third, Jeb Bush, facing a uniquely sharp
dilemma over how to tackle the current crisis in that region, having
to explain how he would step up the fight against Islamic State
militants without getting bogged down in another war.
With Bush expected to be a front-runner among Republican candidates
jockeying for the 2016 presidential nomination, strategists say he
will need to set his own course on U.S. policy toward the region
without getting entangled in a debate about the legacy of his father
and older brother.
The former Florida governor, who has limited foreign policy
experience, is expected to begin fleshing out his views on U.S.
policy in the region in a speech in Chicago on Wednesday.
There are early indications that Bush will argue for a more robust
response to Islamic State than President Barack Obama, seeking
greater use of air power and more diplomatic engagement, without
sending more American ground troops.
"We have to be engaged," he said in a speech earlier this month in
Detroit. "And that doesn't necessarily mean boots on the ground in
every case."
The rise of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, known as ISIS or ISIL,
has become the top foreign policy issue in the early days of the
2016 race. There's a deep divide between Republicans and Democrats
over the root cause, and how to respond.
 Democrats accuse Jeb's brother, former President George W. Bush, of
giving rise to the current turmoil in the region with the 2003
U.S.-led invasion of Iraq over weapons of mass destruction that were
never found. The prolonged conflict damaged George W. Bush's second
term and his popularity.
Twelve years earlier, Jeb's father, former President George H.W.
Bush, assembled a global coalition to push Iraq out of Kuwait, a
swift war that was far more popular at home.
Republicans say the extremist Islamic State would never have gained
its footing if Obama had reached an agreement with the Iraqi
government to leave a U.S. military force in the country.
Bush aides declined to discuss what Jeb Bush would say on Wednesday
in his speech, but Jeb told reporters in Florida on Friday, when
asked how he would handle Iraq and Afghanistan differently than his
brother, that he would focus on the future. "It's not about
re-litigating anything in the past," he said.
He has said in the past that he supports his brother's decision to
go to war in Iraq, which could leave him open to attack from
Democrats should he win the nomination.
"A lot of things in history change over time," Jeb told CNN's "State
of the Union" in 2013. "I think a lot of people will respect the
resolve that my brother showed both in defending the country and the
war in Iraq."
His complaint about the recent past in Iraq is that Obama has let
American influence wane in the region.
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Jeb Bush has been relying on foreign policy advice from a wide range
of experts, a group that sources said includes Meghan O'Sullivan, a
former national security aide to George W. Bush who was an early
advocate for the 2007 troop surge that helped stabilize Iraq at the
time.
Her presence is seen positively by those Republican foreign policy
veterans who support a pragmatic approach, while more hawkish
Republicans view her with suspicion.
Republican foreign policy veterans say Jeb Bush should not dwell on
the past but offer his own ideas.
"He needs to lay out his specific views on our current and future
national security concerns. I would argue there’s no need to look
back to the problems with entering Iraq but to give us his views on
ISIS in Iraq and Syria right now," said Richard Grenell, who was the
U.S. spokesman at the United Nations for much of George W. Bush's
administration.
Democrats say Jeb Bush inevitably will be asked to explain to
war-weary Americans how he would handle Iraq differently than his
brother.
"It's a hard problem for him because he's obviously going to say
that going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do," said
Democratic strategist Bob Shrum, who was campaign manager for the
2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry, who lost to George
W. Bush. "He's going to try to shift the question to what should be
done about ISIS."
While Jeb Bush and other Republican candidates need to be wary of
Americans' war fatigue, the party's national security veterans say
there are ways to intensify the air campaign against militants who
have seized large parts of Iraq and Syria.
The former Bush presidents are expected to recognize that Jeb will
lay out his own plan on Iraq, rather than be influenced by the
family's policy legacy.
"They support him because they think he'd be a good president," said
a former Bush administration official.
"That doesn't mean he has to subscribe to the same policy
prescriptions that came before him. In fact, because of changed
circumstances in the world, he'll have to chart his own course."
(Reporting By Steve Holland; editing by Stuart Grudgings)
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