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[February 21, 2015]  The Sports Xchange

MLB Team Report - Cincinnati Reds - INSIDE PITCH

Reds/Headline

The most oft-used word to describe the Cincinnati Reds' postseason chances this season is "if."

In the suddenly crowded National League Central, the Reds can contend only if:

--First baseman Joey Votto recovers fully from a quad injury and performs closer to his career averages.

--Right fielder Jay Bruce rebounds from the worst offensive season of his career.

--Marlon Byrd can provide power and stability in left field.

--Right-hander Homer Bailey fully recovers from elbow surgery and doesn't miss significant time to begin the season.

--If the void in the starting rotation left by the departures of Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon can be adequately filled.

Despite a myriad of questions heading into camp, second-year manager Bryan Price remains optimistic.

"No one up here is thinking about anything less than winning the Central," Price said.

The Reds reached the postseason in three of four seasons including a pair of division titles, then stumbled to a 76-86 record last year after starting the season with a major league leading eight players on the disabled list. Overall, 15 Reds players made 19 appearances on the DL.

No injury was more catastrophic than Votto's. And, the condition of the 2010 National League most valuable player's knee remained a mystery through the winter. Until he swings a bat in spring training, it is difficult to know how close he is to 100 percent.

Votto missed 99 games last year with a distal quad strain in his left knee, including the last 76 games of the season. Baseball's active leader in slugging percentage, Votto drew the ire of fans and media pundits for his admitted focus on on-base percentage. For the Reds offense to be productive, Votto needs to be healthy and producing runs.

Bruce batted .217 last season, well below his .257 career mark during his first six big-league seasons. He missed two weeks in May after undergoing arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee and never got on track offensively. But, Bruce is only two seasons removed from a Silver Slugger Award and is fully expected to rebound this season at the plate.

Cincinnati's lineup, which produced fewer than 600 runs for the first time in more than 30 years, could again be formidable, but only if Hamilton can set the table up top, Votto and Bruce return to form, Byrd produces in left field, and third baseman Todd Frazier and catcher Devin Mesoraco enjoy repeats of their breakout 2014 seasons.

The Reds raised eyebrows by trading Latos and Simon in a pair of forward-thinking, financially-driven deals which left two openings in the starting rotation below three formidable right handers in Cy Young Award runner-up Johnny Cueto, Bailey, and Mike Leake.

Cuban right-hander Raisel Iglesias is among the candidates to fill one of those rotation spots, along with lefty Tony Cingrani. The Reds are hoping that Bailey will be back at 100 percent as close to Opening Day as possible. Otherwise, one of the strongest rotations in baseball the past few years will be in a state of flux.

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MLB Team Report - Cincinnati Reds - NOTES, QUOTES

POSITION BATTLE TO WATCH: Offseason trades of RHP Mat Latos and RHP Alfredo Simon netted the Reds some quality prospects and put cash in the coffers. But those deals also created a void in the Reds' starting rotation. Who fills those two spots will be among the big stories to watch this spring. Left-hander Tony Cingrani is expected to be in the mix along with highly-touted Cuban RHP Raisel Iglesias.
 


ROOKIE WATCH: RHP Raisel Iglesias was signed by the Reds on June 27 to a seven-year, $27 million contract. The Cuban defector wowed observers during his stint in the Arizona Fall League. He showed solid command of his breaking ball, changeup and fastball, which consistently was at 93-94 mph. Offseason trades of RHP Mat Latos and RHP Alfredo Simon have created a void in the rotation and Iglesias appears to be on the fast track to filling one of those spots.

COMEBACK TRAIL: The condition of first baseman Joey Votto's quad remained a mystery throughout the final 76 games of last season, all of which he missed. Votto, who missed a total of 99 games with a distal quad strain in his left knee, was vague at best when addressing his knee. When he played, Votto batted .255, far below his .310 career mark. Votto ranked second on the club with 47 walks, but without him the Reds ranked near the bottom of the NL in on-base percentage and on-base-plus-slugging percentage. Until he swings a bat in spring training, it's anybody's guess how far along Votto is in his recovery.

PLAYER NOTES:

--LF Marlon Byrd was acquired in a trade with the Philadelphia Phillies in December. Byrd is expected to fill a void in left field created by the departures of Ryan Ludwick and Chris Heisey while also giving the Reds some pop in the lineup. Byrd hit 25 homers with 85 RBIs last season. But, he also struck out a career-high 185 times. Reds manager Bryan Price lauded Byrd's leadership ability and hopes that would rub off on some his club's younger players.

--3B Todd Frazier avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year, $12 million contract on Feb. 8. Frazier is coming off the best season of his career, batting .273 with 29 home runs, and 80 RBIs. The Reds discussed a lengthier contract with Frazier but were unable to come to terms. Frazier's current deal means he'll be arbitration-eligible in 2017.

--C Devin Mesoraco assumed the primary catching duties last season after the Reds traded veteran Ryan Hanigan. Mesoraco responded with an All-Star season in which he hit .273 with 25 homers and 80 RBIs. The 26-year-old backstop was rewarded in January with a four-year, $28 million contract. Mesoraco was the Reds' first-round draft choice in 2007.

--RHP Johnny Cueto stands to gain a hefty raise, either from the Reds or another club, when he becomes a free-agent following this season. Cueto went 20-9 with a 2.25 ERA in 34 starts last season. The Reds say they will attempt to resign Cueto, but he'll stretch the club's coffers, especially after Max Scherzer was awarded a seven-year, $210 million dollar deal by the Washington Nationals in January.

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QUOTE TO NOTE: "That doesn't bother us. We like being under the radar. We like our club. If we stay healthy, this is a very good club" -- Cincinnati Reds general manager Walt Jocketty told the Cincinnati Enquirer when asked about preseason predictions.

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MLB Team Report - Cincinnati Reds - ROSTER REPORT

PROJECTED ROTATION:

RHP Johnny Cueto

RHP Homer Bailey

RHP Mike Leake

RHP Tony Cingrani

RHP Raisel Iglesias

Cueto won 20 games in 2014 and finished second behind Dodgers' ace Clayton Kershaw in last year's Cy Young Award voting. With prior injury woes behind him, Cueto appears poised for another big season. There is speculation it could be his last in Cincinnati unless the Reds can find money in the coffers to pay one of baseball's most coveted aces.

Aside from Cueto, the Reds enter spring training with some question marks in the rotation. Right-hander Homer Bailey had season-ending elbow surgery in September and his timetable will be a hot topic. Offseason deals involving right-handers Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon have created a void in the rotation that could be filled by 25-year old left hander Tony Cingrani and a handful of other candidates, the most intriguing of which is Cuban right-hander Raisel Iglesias, who drew rave reviews during an Arizona Fall League stint.

PROJECTED BULLPEN:

LHP Aroldis Chapman (closer)

RHP Sam LeCure

LHP Manny Parra

RHP J.J. Hoover

RHP Carlos Contreras

RHP Burke Badenhop

RHP Jumbo Diaz
 


The bullpen was a major weakness for the Reds last season aside from Chapman, who didn't pitch until May 11 after being struck in the forehead by a line drive during spring training and still managed to save 36 games and set several major league records, including 17.67 strikeouts-per-nine-innings.

Chapman's primary setup man, right-hander Jonathan Broxton was traded in the offseason. But, the late winter acquisitions of veteran right-handers Kevin Gregg and Burke Badenhop could provide a boost. Hoover must rebound from a horrific 10-loss season and young arms such as Diaz and Contreras will need to contribute for this staff to improve last season's 4.11 staff ERA, which ranked second from the bottom in the NL.

PROJECTED LINEUP:

1. CF Billy Hamilton

2. 1B Joey Votto

3. 3B Todd Frazier

4. C Devin Mesoraco

5. RF Jay Bruce

6. LF Marlon Byrd

7. 2B Brandon Phillips

8. SS Zack Cozart

Cincinnati failed to score 600 runs in a season for the first time in more than 30 years. Hamilton did his part by stealing 56 bases, but was also caught 23 times. Without Votto and Bruce overcoming injuries and producing, Hamilton's speed in the leadoff spot will again be more of a novelty for fans. Bruce batted just .217 last year while Votto missed 99 games with a quad injury, taking the thump out of Cincinnati's lineup.

The addition of Byrd gives the Reds much-needed pop and some stability in left field. Both Mesoraco and Frazier are coming off breakout seasons. Cozart, known more for his glove, will need to hit closer to his .252 career average. There's a lot of potential within the Reds' starting eight, and just as many question marks.

MEDICAL WATCH:

--1B Joey Votto (strained left distal quadriceps) missed 99 games last season, including the final 76 contests. The condition of his knee and his readiness to play remained a mystery for months and will be a hot topic when players report to spring training.
 


--RHP Homer Bailey (right elbow surgery in September 2014) had a torn flexor mass tendon repaired. He might miss a start or two to begin the regular season.

--LHP Sean Marshall (arthroscopic left shoulder surgery in June 2014) hopes to be ready to pitch in spring training after being limited to just 31 games the past two seasons due to shoulder issues.

--2B Skip Schumaker (left shoulder surgery in September 2014) missed the last two weeks of the 2014 season.

--LHP Sean Marshall (arthroscopic left shoulder surgery in June 2014) missed the second half of the 2014 season.

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