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 Of all the potential candidates speaking at the meeting of the
Conservative Political Action Conference, the Kentucky senator
should feel most at home. He won the event's presidential straw poll
the last two years, buoyed by support from young libertarian-leaning
conservatives who plan to turn out in force again this year.
The 52-year-old Paul, famous for his non-interventionist approach to
world affairs, could find himself at odds with a growing hawkishness
among other Republican hopefuls mustering support with their calls
for more aggressive action against Russia and Islamic State
militants.
"He's got a challenge to overcome," said Al Cardenas, former
chairman of the American Conservative Union which organizes the
event known by its acronym, CPAC.
Due to speak on Friday, Paul can nonetheless count on a generational
divide of sorts between the party's traditional foreign-policy hawks
and younger activists who have come of age during 13 years of
nonstop U.S. engagement in wars.
"We've grown up in war in Afghanistan and Iraq and we all have
friends who have gone overseas and either have not come back or have
come back mentally scarred. There's a toll that's been taken on
young people in this war," said Jeff Frazee, executive director of
Young Americans for Liberty, a libertarian group that has had a
heavy presence at recent CPAC gatherings.
The influence of libertarians can be seen this year on panels that
will tackle criminal-justice reform and marijuana legalization, as
well as more traditional topics such as abortion and President
Barack Obama's signature healthcare act.
SHARED SPOTLIGHT
With 20 months to go before the election, Walker, 47, and Bush, 62,
will each have a moment in the CPAC spotlight.
Walker, the Wisconsin governor, is riding a surge of conservative
support from a warmly received speech at the Iowa Freedom Summit
last month but came under fire this week when he demurred on whether
he believed Obama was a Christian.
Bush, the former Florida governor seen as the establishment
favorite, has sought to crowd out rivals with an intensive
fundraising push. His Friday appearance will test his appeal to
conservatives who oppose his support for Common Core education
standards and immigration reform.
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CPAC can be risky terrain for an establishment candidate. Former
Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney drew widespread derision on his
way to capturing the Republican nomination in 2012 when he argued he
had governed the liberal-leaning state in a "severely conservative"
fashion.
The father and brother of former presidents, who has been out of
office since 2007, Bush will share the stage with a new generation
of conservatives forged by the Tea Party movement.
Paul's family name has goodwill attached due to the multiple
presidential campaigns run by his father, former Texas Congressman
Ron Paul, whose isolationist positions had a narrow yet noteworthy
appeal in a segment of the Republican Party.
Paul defenders say Paul has been clear about his support for action
against Islamic State. "He wants to make sure it's done in a
targeted, smart way with a clear plan for victory," said Jesse
Benton, a Paul friend and former aide.
Republican strategist Ron Kaufman said Paul's objective is twofold:
To retain his father's rabid base of support but make clear he is
not in lockstep with him. "It's a fine line he has to walk," Kaufman
said.
The straw poll result will be announced on Saturday.
(Editing by Howard Goller)
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