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 Questions surrounding Havana's human rights record and the
promised release of Cuban detainees have the potential to inflame
anti-Havana passions on Capitol Hill, where the House and Senate are
expected to hold hearings soon after they resume on Tuesday.
Whether the obstacles amount in the long run to anything more than
speed bumps on the way to wider detente remains to be seen. But at a
minimum, they illustrate how benefits from Obama's ditching of a
half-decade of U.S. isolation of Cuba won't come quickly or without
rancorous debate.
Signaling that it will continue to suppress dissent, the government
of Cuban President Raul Castro on Tuesday detained more than 50
activists, dissident leaders said, to squelch a planned gathering in
Havana's Revolution Square. And dissidents reported new detentions
on Thursday.
The crackdown brought sharp condemnation from the U.S. State
Department. All of those detained had been released by the weekend,
dissidents said.
 There is also concern over when 53 people Washington considers
political prisoners will be released and on what terms. A senior
Obama aide said at the time of the Dec. 17 announcement that Cuba
had agreed to free them as part of the deal to restore diplomatic
relations and that an unspecified number of them were already
released. Raul Castro referred to Cuba’s freeing of a group of
persons the U.S. “has shown interest in” as part of his announcement
of the wider deal but didn’t mention a number.
But Cuban dissident groups say they believe that most of them remain
in some kind of detention. The White House has steadfastly refused
to release the names of the 53 and has not shared the list with the
dissident groups.
A source with knowledge of the agreed prisoner release told Reuters
the delay stems from lack of a final deal on where the prisoners
will go - leaving for the United States or Europe, or staying in
Cuba. In the past the Cuban government has preferred that such
prisoners leave the country when released. But some are likely to
insist on their right to stay in Cuba and continue fighting for
their political rights.
The confusion over those releases and the latest dissident round-ups
have provided ammunition for congressional critics of Obama's Cuba
policy. Those lawmakers have said they will seek to slow or block
improved ties with Havana.
"The Castro regime's latest acts of repression against political
dissidents in Cuba make a mockery of President Obama's new U.S.-Cuba
policy," said Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida Republican and a potential
2016 presidential candidate. "The fact that the regime continues to
violate the human rights of Cubans like this shows that it has even
less incentive to change its ways" after Obama's deal with Castro,
Rubio said.
One early legislative fight over Cuba policy could come when
Congress considers funding for the Department of Homeland Security.
The $1.1 trillion government spending bill passed in mid-December
funds DHS only until Feb. 27, because conservative Republicans want
to gut Obama’s executive orders on immigration reforms.
Congressional aides said they expect lawmakers opposed to the Cuba
policy to use the DHS funding bill to eliminate any funding for
Obama’s Cuba plans.
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LONG AND BUMPY ROAD
Such moves will underscore the barriers to change.
It may be some time before people in Cuba as well as U.S. businesses
and others reap opportunities from Obama's new policy, said Arturo
Valenzuela, the State Department's top official for Latin America in
Obama's first term.
"It's clear to me that what the Cubans want is perestroika, but they
don't particularly want glasnost," said Valenzuela, now with the
Covington & Burling law firm.
'Perestroika' was former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev's
ultimately failed effort to reform and rebuild the Communist Party.
'Glasnost' was his move to make the USSR a more open society.
"It's too early really to tell how this is going to work itself
through, and it's probably going to take longer than some people
maybe expect," Valenzuela said.
In unveiling the opening to Cuba on Dec. 17, Obama acknowledged, "I
do not expect the changes I am announcing today to bring about a
transformation of Cuban society overnight."
The source familiar with the prisoner release deal, who spoke on
condition of anonymity, said the White House was eager to announce
the diplomatic breakthrough with Cuba in December, before opposition
Republicans assume control of both chambers of Congress next week.
U.S. officials said their timetable was driven by the deteriorating
health of USAID contractor Alan Gross, freed from a Cuban prison as
part of the deal.
Support for isolating Cuba has ebbed in Congress in recent years.
But some U.S. lawmakers of both parties vehemently oppose
normalizing relations.
Many legal experts, and the White House, say Obama has broad
executive powers to ease restrictions on commerce, transportation
and banking, as well as open a U.S. Embassy in Havana - even if
Congress objects.
(Writing by Warren Strobel. Additional reporting by David Adams in
Miami, Daniel Trotta in Havana and Lesley Wroughton in Washington.;
Editing by Marilyn Thompson and Martin Howell)
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