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Euro bonds rally, shares sink on Swiss aftershocks

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[January 16, 2015] By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) - Shockwaves from Switzerland's move to ditch its currency cap were still being felt on Friday, as investors made a fresh grab for top-rated government bonds, and world shares and commodities headed for another week of losses.

The Swiss franc dipped after Thursday's surge, but it become the first country to see its 10-year bond yields fall below zero and its shares were again Europe's worst performers.

Stocks worldwide were limping toward a third week in the red, while Wall Street [.N] was expected to decline for a sixth consecutive day for the first time since mid-2012, the height of the euro zone crisis.

Fragile risk appetite meant more record low yields for German and other core euro zone government bonds, while Greek markets fell as it emerged two of its banks had requested emergency ECB funding.

Commodity markets were for once an area of relative calm as oil climbed to just below $49 a barrel, safe-haven gold cooled after its best run in 11 months and copper settled after 7 percent plunge this week.

"It's not panic but there has been volatility across the board, in FX, in commodities, in bonds and in stocks this week," said Alvin Tan, a strategist at Societe Generale.

"For a developed G10 currency, the 20 percent move in the Swiss franc (this week) was extraordinary."
 


Thursday's shock Swiss decision to abandon the franc cap and bets the European Central Bank will start buying government bonds with new money as soon as next week combined to keep the euro pinned near an 11-year low against the dollar.

It rose over 4.5 percent against the Swiss franc, however, after plunging more than 18 percent on Thursday, the biggest daily loss in its history.

Top ECB policymaker Benoit Coeure stoked quantitative easing expectations further, saying the aim would be to anchor long-term financing conditions and restore confidence in the bloc's inflation target of just under 2 percent.

His comments came as it was confirmed euro zone prices fell last month for the first time since 2009.

DIGGING FOR TREASURIES

U.S. traders were digesting results from one of Wall Street's biggest names, Goldman Sachs, after the benchmark S&P 500 closed below 2,000 points for the first time in a month on Thursday.

European stocks were staging something of a fightback [.EU] and were only fractionally down on the day despite another 4.5 percent drop in Swiss shares and a 2.5 percent fall in Athens.

Asia had ended the week on a gloomy note. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.4 percent, while the yen's recent rise helped push Japan's Nikkei stock average down 1.4 percent, and 1.9 percent lower for the week.

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Next week could be just as turbulent for markets.

The IMF is likely to follow the World Bank in downgrading economic forecasts, while the ECB holds its critical meeting on QE on Thursday. That will be followed on Sunday by cliff hanger Greek elections that anti-austerity Syriza is forecast to win.

Also in the mix are a developing fourth-quarter corporate earnings season, fears other commodities such as metals may follow the spectacular collapse in oil, tensions over Russia and Ukraine, and the monthly Chinese data dump.

As U.S. trading gathered momentum on Friday, the dollar was continuing to recover from one-month lows against the yen, touching 116.70 as it headed for a fifth weekly rise against major currencies.

Aiding the greenback, U.S. Treasury prices dipped and yields rose from lows hit on Thursday as investors scrambled for safety.

Geopolitical and commodity market tensions continued to bubble under the surface, however.

Crisis stricken Ukraine's central bank head Valeriia Gontareva called for swift action from international lenders like the IMF to overcome the country's "full-scale financial crisis" as she also warned she may have to hike interest rates.

Helping offset the tensions for Russia, Brent crude oil futures rose above $49 a barrel and U.S. crude also made gains as the International Energy Agency said recent price slumps could reverse.

"How low the market's floor will be is anybody's guess. But the sell-off is having an impact," the IEA said on Friday. "A price recovery - barring any major disruption - may not be imminent, but signs are mounting that the tide will turn."

(Additional reporting by Jemima Kelly; Editing by Catherine Evans)

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