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 As ageing first-generation reactors close, the true cost of
decommissioning will be crucial for the future of the nuclear
industry, already ailing following the 2011 Fukushima disaster and
competition from cheap shale gas, falling oil prices and a flood of
renewable energy from wind and solar.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said late last year that
almost 200 of the 434 reactors in operation around the globe would
be retired by 2040, and estimated the cost of decommissioning them
at more than $100 billion.
But many experts view this figure as way too low, because it does
not include the cost of nuclear waste disposal and long-term storage
and because decommissioning costs - often a decade or more away -
vary hugely per reactor and by country.
"Half a billion dollars per reactor for decommissioning is no doubt
vastly underestimated," said Mycle Schneider, a Paris-based nuclear
energy consultant.
The IEA's head of power generation analysis, Marco Baroni, said that
even excluding waste disposal costs, the $100 billion estimate was
indicative, and that the final cost could be as much as twice as
high. He added that decommissioning costs per reactor can vary by a
factor of four.
Decommissioning costs vary according to reactor type and size,
location, the proximity and availability of disposal facilities, the
intended future use of the site, and the condition of the reactor at
the time of decommissioning.
Although technology used for decommissioning might gradually become
cheaper, the cost of final waste depositories is largely unknown and
costs might spiral over time. Reactor lifespans are measured in
decades, which means financing costs and provisions depend strongly
on unpredictable interest rate levels.
"The IEA estimate is, without question, just a figure drawn out of
the air. The reality is, the costs are quite phenomenal," said Paul
Dorfman, honorary senior research associate at the Energy Institute,
University College London.
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission estimates that the cost of
decommissioning in the United States - which has some 100 reactors -
ranges from $300 million to $400 million per reactor, but some
reactors might cost much more.
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France's top public auditor and the nuclear safety authority
estimate the country's decommissioning costs at between 28 billion
and 32 billion euros ($32-37 billion).
German utilities - such as E.ON, which last month said it would
split in two, spinning off power plants to focus on renewable energy
and power grids - have put aside 36 billion euros..
Britain's bill for decommissioning and waste disposal is now
estimated at 110 billion pounds ($167 billion) over the next 100
years, double the 50 billion pound estimate made 10 years ago.
Japanese government estimates put the decommissioning cost of the
country's 48 reactors at around $30 billion, but this is seen as
conservative. Russia has 33 reactors and costs are seen ranging from
$500 million to $1 billion per reactor.
The IEA's Baroni said the issue was not the exact cost per reactor.
"What matters is whether enough funds have been set aside to provide
for it," he said.
($1 = 0.6588 pounds)
($1 = 0.8601 euros)
(Additional reporting by Vera Eckert in Frankfurt, Svetlana
Burmistrova in Moscow, Scott DiSavino in New York and Aaron
Sheldrick in Tokyo; Editing by Dale Hudson)
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