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 The most accurate predictions of which movies the U.S.
Library of Congress will deem "culturally, historically, or
aesthetically significant" are not the views of critics or fans
but a simple algorithm applied to a database, according to a
study published on Monday.
The crucial data, scientists reported in Proceedings of the
National Academy of Sciences, are what the Internet Movie
Database (IMDb.com) calls "Connections" - films, television
episodes and other works that allude to an earlier movie.
For 15,425 films in IMDB.com examined in the study, the measure
that was most predictive of which made it into the Library of
Congress's National Film Registry, which honors "significant"
movies, was the number of references to it by other films
released many years later.
The 1972 classic "The Godfather," for instance, is referred to
by 1,323 films and television episodes, which as recently as
2014 quoted the "offer he can't refuse" line, referred to the
famous horse-head scene, or played the theme music, for
instance. "Godfather" made the registry in 1990.
The number of references to a film more than 25 years after its
release was a nearly infallible predictor of whether it would
make the registry, topping 91 percent accuracy, said applied
mathematician and study author Max Wasserman of Northwestern
University.
Critics' judgments, Oscar wins, and box-office numbers did not
come close.
Films are nominated for the registry by the public and chosen by
the Librarian of Congress in consultation with a board of
experts including critics, academics, directors, screenwriters
and other industry insiders.
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By the 25-year-lag rule, the 1971 box-office disappointment "Willy
Wonka & the Chocolate Factory" should be in the registry: IMDb lists
52 long-lag citations to it, the 37th most in the Northwestern
analysis.
In December, six months after the scientists submitted their paper,
the Library added "Willy Wonka" to the list of 650 cinematic
immortals, just as the research predicted.
"Experts have biases that can affect how they evaluate things," said
physicist and co-author Luis A.N. Amaral of Northwestern.
"Automated, objective methods don't suffer from that. It may hurt
our pride, but they can perform as well as or better than experts."
Other movies identified by the Northwestern algorithm as likely to
make the Registry include "Dumbo," "Spartacus" and "The Shining."
Of course, humans are not entirely superfluous: flesh-and-blood
creators must decide to refer to an earlier gem in order to
establish the crucial IMDb "connections."
(Reporting by Sharon Begley; Editing by Nick Zieminski)
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