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 The most accurate predictions of which movies the U.S. Library of
Congress will deem "culturally, historically, or aesthetically
significant" are not the views of critics or fans but a simple
algorithm applied to a database, according to a study published on
Monday.
The crucial data, scientists reported in Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, are what the Internet Movie Database (IMDb.com)
calls "Connections" - films, television episodes and other works
that allude to an earlier movie.
For 15,425 films in IMDB.com examined in the study, the measure that
was most predictive of which made it into the Library of Congress's
National Film Registry, which honors "significant" movies, was the
number of references to it by other films released many years later.
The 1972 classic "The Godfather," for instance, is referred to by
1,323 films and television episodes, which as recently as 2014
quoted the "offer he can't refuse" line, referred to the famous
horse-head scene, or played the theme music, for instance.
"Godfather" made the registry in 1990.
 The number of references to a film more than 25 years after its
release was a nearly infallible predictor of whether it would make
the registry, topping 91 percent accuracy, said applied
mathematician and study author Max Wasserman of Northwestern
University.
Critics' judgments, Oscar wins, and box-office numbers did not come
close.
Films are nominated for the registry by the public and chosen by the
Librarian of Congress in consultation with a board of experts
including critics, academics, directors, screenwriters and other
industry insiders.
By the 25-year-lag rule, the 1971 box-office disappointment "Willy
Wonka & the Chocolate Factory" should be in the registry: IMDb lists
52 long-lag citations to it, the 37th most in the Northwestern
analysis.
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In December, six months after the scientists submitted their paper,
the Library added "Willy Wonka" to the list of 650 cinematic
immortals, just as the research predicted.
"Experts have biases that can affect how they evaluate things," said
physicist and co-author Luis A.N. Amaral of Northwestern.
"Automated, objective methods don't suffer from that. It may hurt
our pride, but they can perform as well as or better than experts."
Other movies identified by the Northwestern algorithm as likely to
make the Registry include "Dumbo," "Spartacus" and "The Shining."
Of course, humans are not entirely superfluous: flesh-and-blood
creators must decide to refer to an earlier gem in order to
establish the crucial IMDb "connections."
(Reporting by Sharon Begley; Editing by Nick Zieminski)
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