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Economies that are particularly dependent on oil
exports, including Qatar, Iraq, Libya and Saudi Arabia, will be
hit hardest by the more than 50 percent decline in petroleum
prices, the IMF said in an update to its outlook for the Middle
East and Central Asia.
Oil prices are now hovering near six-year lows amid expectations
of an abundance of supply tied to unexpectedly high production
of U.S. shale crude.
The IMF said, however, that falling crude prices will not
translate immediately into major gains for oil importers in the
Middle East and Central Asia, which have been hurt by the
slowing growth prospects of key trading partners in the euro
zone and Russia.
The IMF this week cut its forecasts for global economic growth
to 3.5 percent for 2015 compared with an October outlook of 3.8
percent, and significantly lowered projections for oil exporters
Russia, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia.
The IMF said nearly every exporting country in the Middle East
and Central Asia is expected to run a fiscal deficit this year
because of the oil price shock, which prompted the IMF to
downgrade the region's growth prospects by as much as 1
percentage point compared with its October forecasts, to 3.4
percent for 2015.
The losses are likely to reach 21 percentage points of gross
domestic product in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation
Council, or about $300 billion. In non-GCC countries and in
Central Asia, the expected losses are $90 billion and $35
billion this year, the IMF said.
Oil importers will see smaller gains, compared to exporters'
losses, as their economies are less dependent on the price of
petroleum, the IMF said. Morocco, Lebanon and Mauritania are
expected to gain most from falling crude prices, while Lebanon
and Egypt are likely to see improved fiscal balances, the IMF
said.
The IMF expects oil-importing countries in the Middle East to
save most of the windfall, boosting their current account
positions by 1 percentage point of GDP, compared with what the
IMF forecast in October.
Central Asian importers should see worse external positions this
year, compared with the October forecasts, because of lower
demand from Russia and China, the Fund said.
(Reporting by Anna Yukhananov.Editing by Andre Grenon)
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