Euro steadies despite Greek worries

[January 26, 2015] By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro regained a foothold on Monday, with investors choosing to take some profit on two days of dramatic losses after the results of elections in Greece sent the shared currency to an 11-year low.

The euro fell as low as $1.1098 in Asian trading after projections showed anti-austerity party Syriza won 149 seats in the 300-seat Greek parliament, setting Athens on a collision course with international lenders and potentially threatening its place in the euro.

It recovered to trade a third of a percent higher for most of the morning in Europe around $1.1235.

Dealers and analysts in London said the most likely next move was still down but that the European Central Bank's announcement of outright money-printing last week had insulated European markets from the fallout of the Greek vote.

"I think on the day people will look to re-sell 1.1250/60 or less," said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy with Bank of Montreal in London.

"The fact that the ECB's QE program has already been announced is positive for credit spreads and limits the damage on the euro. That and positioning were probably responsible for the bounce from the lows around $1.11."

The euro has lost 10 full cents against the dollar since the start of the year and, at $1.11, more than 4 cents since the ECB's announcement last week.

It recovered half a percent against the yen to 132.75 yen. The biggest gain was against the Swiss franc, against which traders have speculated the Swiss National Bank has intervened regularly since removing its 1.20 francs per euro cap on Jan. 15.

Data on Monday showed sight deposits at the SNB rose sharply last week, normally an indicator the bank has been selling francs in the market. The euro gained 1.2 percent to 0.9995 francs by GMT 1244, having briefly passed parity earlier.

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Positioning data on Friday showed as of the middle of last week the market was still not as bullish on the dollar against the euro as it had been at the height of the last crisis over Greece in 2012, despite the euro being lower. That suggests there may be room for another strong push lower.

Market participants saw the risk that euro selling would pick up later in the day if Syriza reiterates a tough stance for negotiations with the "Troika" of the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission.

Such a scenario could trigger a test of $1.10, where large options lay, according to several research notes.

"The absolutely dominant view is that we are heading toward parity to the dollar, the only question is how fast," said a senior dealer with one large international bank in London.

"The only buyers are the short-term speculative players caught short at the wrong level."

Some analysts said the long-term impact may be more nuanced because most investors expect Tsipras, at the end of the day, to work with the European Union and other international lenders.

"Usually politicians say populist things before an election. So now the question is how much they are going to stick to the promises made to the Troika," said Ayako Sera, market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

(Additional reporting by Tomo Uetake in TOKYO and Naomi Tajitsu in WELLINGTON; Editing by Ruth Pitchford)

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