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In its most comprehensive analysis yet of the
impacts of climate change, the Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) painted a worst-case
scenario of a rise of up to 5.1 degrees celsius by 2090 if there
are no actions taken to cut greenhouse emissions.
"There is a very high confidence that hot days will become more
frequent and hotter," CSIRO principal research scientist Kevin
Hennessy said. "We also have very high confidence that sea
levels will rise, oceans will become more acidic, and snow
depths will decline."
The dire warning from the government-funded agency is at odds
with the official line from Australian Prime Minister Tony
Abbott, who in 2009 declared the science of climate change was
"crap".
Abbott last year scrapped a tax on carbon pricing and abolished
the independent Climate Commission, saying recent severe
droughts that have crippled cattle farmers were "not a new thing
in Australia."
As the host of the Group of 20 last year, he attempted to keep
climate change off the agenda, resulting in an embarrassing
backdown at the Leaders Summit in Brisbane after U.S. President
Barack Obama used a high-profile speech to warn Australia that
its own Great Barrier Reef was in danger.
One of the world's biggest carbon emitters per capita, Australia
has declined to join the United States, Japan, France and others
in contributing to the United Nations' Green Climate Fund.
Abbott has instead committed A$2.55 billion ($2.21 billion) to a
domestic initiative to reduce the country's emissions by 5
percent below 2000 levels by 2020.
The new research by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, using
some 40 global climate models, has Australia warming at a
greater rate than the rest of the world.
The 5.1 degree celsius projection for 2090 is at the top end of
a range starting at 2.8 degrees celsius and is dependent on how
deeply, if at all, greenhouse gas emissions are cut. The world
average is for an increase of between 2.6 degrees celsius and
4.8 degrees celsius.
The report said the annual average temperature in Australia
would likely be up to 1.3 degrees celsius warmer in 2030 than
the average experienced between 1986 and 2005.
(This version of the story corrects Fahrenheit conversion figure
in first paragraph to reflect increase, not static number)
(Editing by Diane Craft)
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