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China's coal demand fell for the first time in over a decade in
2014, and production also dipped 5.8 percent in the first half
of this year, largely as a result of a slowdown in major
downstream sectors like power, steel and cement.
But without specific measures to rein in growth, coal
consumption could continue to increase until 2030, aggravating
public health risks and putting pressure on China's already
strained water supplies, experts with the Natural Resources
Defense Council (NRDC), a U.S. environmental think tank, warned
in a study released in Beijing on Thursday.
"If the timeline for the peak is set in 2020, it will benefit
water resources, environment, public health, the transition to
new energy sources and the creation of new green jobs," the
report said.
Coal accounts for more than 75 percent of China's total power
production. While some groups have forecast consumption could
peak as early as 2019, both the China National Coal Association
and the International Energy Agency have said that output would
continue to rise well beyond 2020.
The NRDC has been collaborating with official Chinese think
tanks to look at the possibility of imposing a cap on coal
consumption, and will submit its findings to the government at
the end of July.
It estimated that imposing a 2020 cap on coal use would save the
country as much as 251 billion yuan ($40.4 billion) a year in
environmental and power generation costs alone.
It would also dramatically cut airborne emissions like sulfur
dioxide and nitrogen oxide, while the annual number of
coal-related fatalities would fall by 48,000 by 2020, and by
89,000 by 2030.
"Business as usual" policies would see total coal consumption
rising to 4.8 billion tonnes, up from 3.9 billion tonnes last
year, the report said.
The extra demand would not only raise carbon emissions but also
increase water use in the sector to nearly 105 billion cubic
meters by 2030, 37 billion cubic meters more than the country
can currently supply, it said.
China aims to cut coal consumption in Beijing and several
surrounding provinces by 83 million tonnes over the 2013-2017
period, but experts have expressed concern that the failure to
impose a nationwide cap will mean that production is merely
shifted to western provinces.
($1 = 6.2093 Chinese yuan)
(Reporting By Kathy Chen and David Stanway; Editing by Richard
Pullin)
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