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 Researchers followed 76,704 obese men and 99,791 obese women for up
to nine years. In any given year during the study, the probability
that a patient might achieve a normal body weight was 1 in 210 for
men and 1 in 124 for women.
For those who were severely obese, the annual odds stretched to 1 in
1,290 for men and 1 in 677 for women.
"The findings are not entirely unexpected as the weight trajectory
for most is a gradual increase until late middle age," said senior
study author Martin Gulliford, a primary care and public health
researcher at King's College London. "Large reductions in body
weight tend to be unusual."
Globally, 1.9 billion adults are overweight or obese, according to
the World Health Organization. Obesity increases the risk of heart
disease, diabetes, joint disorders and certain cancers.
Previous research has found obese people often struggle to shed
excess pounds or keep weight off when they do lose it. Lifestyle
changes such as following a healthy diet and getting regular
exercise can often help in the short-term but fail to produce
lasting results, particularly among people who have more than 100
pounds to lose before reaching a healthy weight.
For the current study, Gulliford and colleagues focused on whether
obese people who didn't get weight loss surgery could reach a
healthy weight, as well as whether they could successfully shed just
5 percent of their weight.
"Reductions of body weight of 5 percent or more are very valuable as
this will reduce the harmful metabolic effects of excess weight,"
Gulliford said by email.
Researchers analyzed data on obese people aged 20 years and older
from a national database in the U.K. from 2004 to 2014.
To be included in the study, participants had to have at least three
records of their body mass index (BMI), a measure of weight relative
to height, in the database so researchers could estimate changes
over time.
A BMI between 18.5 and 24.9 is considered a healthy weight, 25 to
29.9 is overweight, 30 or above is obese and 40 or higher is what's
known as morbidly obese.
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An adult who is 5’ 9” tall and weighs from 125 to 168 pounds would
have a healthy weight and a BMI of 18.5 to 24.9, according to the
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. An obese adult at
that height would weigh at least 203 pounds and have a BMI of 30 or
more.
At the start of the study, the men were 55 years old on average and
the women were 49.
After a maximum of nine years, just 1,283 men and 2,245 women
achieved a normal weight.
Overall, the annual likelihood of losing 5 percent of body weight
was 1 in 12 for men and 1 in 10 for women, the researchers
estimated. For people who were morbidly obese at the start of the
study, the odds of achieving this milestone improved – narrowing to
1 in 8 for men and 1 in 7 for women.
It's possible that these estimates might be thrown off by inaccurate
data on height or weight for the study participants, the researchers
acknowledge in the American Journal of Public Health.
Even so, the findings highlight the benefit of focusing on diet and
exercise changes that may be needed to achieve that first 5 percent
weight loss, which can often be achieved within six months, said
Marion J Franz, of Nutrition Concepts by Franz in Minneapolis.
"Research has shown important health benefits from a weight loss of
about 5 percent – prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes, decreases
in blood pressure, decreases in circulating inflammatory markers,
and potential improvements in lipids," Franz, who wasn't involved in
the study, said by email.
"Therefore, weight loss interventions should promote health benefits
not achieving an ideal body weight," she said.
SOURCE: http://bit.ly/1IO0Uce American Journal of Public Health,
online July 16, 2015.
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