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 Among the handful of governors and former governors competing for
the Republican presidential nomination, only one - former Texas
Governor Rick Perry, who declared his candidacy last week - can say
that his state has outpaced the national economy over the past four
years.
Economic growth lagged in other states whose governors are expected
to run for president, according to U.S. government figures released
on Wednesday.
"Only Perry can really brag," said George Mason University economist
Stephen Fuller. "The other guys just haven't been there long enough
and don't have anything to show for it, anyway."
The Texas economy grew by 17.8 percent between 2011 and the
beginning of 2015, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic
Analysis, well above the national pace of 6.3 percent during that
period. The state's economy, however, has begun to show signs of
weakness recently as oil prices have plunged.
In Ohio, Governor John Kasich, who has been mulling a White House
run, presided over a state that grew by 6.0 percent over those four
years, slightly less than the national average. Wisconsin Governor
Scott Walker, considered a likely Republican contender, oversaw
growth of 4.3 percent in his state.
 In New Jersey, the state economy under Governor Chris Christie grew
by 3.8 percent, while Louisiana grew by only 1.2 percent during that
period under Governor Bobby Jindal. Both Christie and Jindal are
eyeing White House bids.
Governors have a limited ability to shape a state's economy in the
short term, economists say.
Investments in education and highways can take years to bear fruit,
while tax cuts must be offset by spending cuts to keep budgets in
balance, resulting in little overall stimulus in the short term.
"If you shift state tax policy to make it more inviting for
businesses to expand here, that can increase employment," said Dale
Knapp, research director at the nonpartisan Wisconsin Taxpayers
Alliance. "But that's a long-term impact."
The dynamics of the particular industries that dominate in a region
play a significant role as well. Economists say that
manufacturing-heavy Wisconsin, for example, is more susceptible to
recession than an oil state like Texas.
Experts say the true impact of any governor often isn't apparent
until years after the person leaves office.
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But that has not stopped potential candidates from talking up their
economic track records on the campaign trail as they criticize
Democratic President Barack Obama for presiding over sluggish growth
at the national level.
Walker, for example, argues that tax cuts and weakened labor laws
have helped Wisconsin climb out of recession, even if he fell far
short of his promise to create 250,000 jobs by the beginning of
2015.
In Texas, Perry's spokeswoman said growth was boosted by Perry's
focus on low taxes, business-friendly regulations and limits on
lawsuits.
In Louisiana, Jindal's administration cites a growing population,
rising income and favorable ratings by business magazines to argue
that the economy has improved, despite the tepid growth of recent
years.
In New Jersey, Christie spokesman Kevin Roberts said Democrats have
slowed his efforts to cut taxes and implement other changes. New
Jersey's economy also suffered when Hurricane Sandy devastated much
of the coast in 2012.
No matter the facts on the ground, White House hopefuls will find a
way to argue that they are leaving their states in better shape than
when they arrived, said James Pethokoukis of the conservative
American Enterprise Institute.
"For these guys there's only two kinds of situations: a booming
economy or a turnaround economy, and in both situations they get the
credit," he said.
(Reporting by Andy Sullivan; Editing by Leslie Adler)
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