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 A masterful tactician who has built a career on playing the
political underdog, Erdogan is in a tight corner after the AK Party
he founded lost its parliamentary majority on Sunday, thwarting for
now his ambition of accumulating greater powers.
Senior AKP officials, from Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu down, have
insisted that the party will exhaust efforts to find a junior
coalition partner before a new election is considered. But in
private, many view a snap poll as Erdogan's best hope of seeing the
party he founded claw back its majority.
"Erdogan is giving soft messages now, and will for a while longer,
but we will see whether it continues," one senior AKP official
involved in party strategy told Reuters, asking not to be identified
after Davutoglu urged officials not to discuss coalition options
with the media.
"Erdogan wants people to see that the option of a coalition won't
work ... Efforts to form a stable government will truly be pursued,
but I don't think they can be realized. I believe an early election
is first in the list of scenarios right now."
For many in NATO member Turkey memories will be vivid of the
fractious, changing coalitions and clashing personalities of the
1990s. International financial support programs collapsed, the
economy lurched into crisis and the influence of the army was
constantly at play.
 Financial markets took succour from the conciliatory remarks of
Erdogan, better known for blustery rhetoric, that all parties should
work quickly to form a new government and that egos must be set
aside.
The relief, however, was short-lived, with the lira giving up some
gains on Friday.
"A period of weak governance wouldn’t necessarily be bad (for the
AKP), especially if they look like 'the adults in the room'," said
Howard Eissenstat, Turkey expert at St. Lawrence University in New
York.
"The economy is likely to head south in the next few months. The AKP
can now blame 'instability' rather than its own policies for the
downturn," he told Reuters.
Unrest in Turkey's Kurdish southeast could also play to Erdogan's
favor, allowing him to take a firmer line that could win over some
nationalists.
The AKP remains Turkey's largest party but its support fell to
around 41 percent from 49.8 at the last parliamentary election.
Votes were lost to the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP),
which entered parliament for the first time, and to the right-wing
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
In the event of a re-run, the AKP would likely struggle to win back
many Kurdish votes but could hope to regain those who turned to the
MHP and now regret the prospect of an unstable coalition. An IPSOS
poll shortly after the results were announced suggested the AKP
would have had 4 percent more support if voters had known the
outcome in advance.
"At the moment, everyone is planning how they can head into an early
election with the most advantage," said Ihsan Aktas, head of polling
company GENAR, seen as close to the government.
"At this point, for the AKP, showing a transparent attitude and
being respectful toward coalitions will be noticed by voters. It
will help their votes," he told Reuters.
POLITICAL THEATER
After parliament is sworn in later this month, Erdogan is expected
to formally give the AKP the mandate to try to form a government. If
no working government can be formed after 45 days, he has the power
to call a new election.
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Eyeing a snap vote, none of Turkey's major parties have an interest
in being seen to scupper a deal, meaning coalition negotiations
could be drawn out potentially for months. "We will not be the
ones closing the road," said a senior member of the secularist
Republican People's Party (CHP), the second biggest group in
parliament, adding that a coalition with the AKP could not be ruled
out.
That would mean bridging a gaping ideological divide, the image of
the CHP as a bastion of the secularist elite being anathema to the
religiously conservative AKP grass roots.
In a conspicuously conciliatory move, Erdogan hosted former CHP
leader Deniz Baykal in his first political meeting after the vote,
even eschewing his controversial new palace and using a more modest
Ankara residence.
"Erdogan wants to be seen acting as a president above the political
frame but in reality he is a central participant in the ongoing
saga," Fadi Hakura, a Turkey expert at London-based think-tank
Chatham House, told Reuters.
"He was so involved in the election campaign and sided with the
ruling party that it will be exceptionally difficult if not
impossible for him to act as an impartial and nonpartisan
president," he said.
So far, Erdogan is choosing his words carefully and the AKP is at
pains to demonstrate willing. Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc
even hinted corruption cases against four ex-ministers could be
brought back to parliament, a key opposition demand.
The AKP may have been chastened by Sunday's election, but as St.
Lawrence's Eissenstat noted, it still won the lion's share of votes
and occupies the "sweet spot" of Turkish politics as a center-right
party in a fundamentally center-right nation.
Few predict its, or Erdogan's, demise.
He remains far and away Turkey's most popular politician, with no
real rivals in the opposition parties. He has bounced back from
adversity before, including several months in prison at the hands of
a secularist-led coalition in 1999 after reciting a poem invoking
religious imagery.
"The election was a rebuke for Erdogan’s ambition and his
capriciousness ... but he remains an extremely savvy politician with
powerful support in the base. He has the power of an expanded
presidency and a bureaucracy dominated by the AKP," Eissenstat said.
"The AKP took a well-deserved drubbing, but when the dust settles,
they are still well placed to dominate Turkey’s politics for years
to come."
(Additional reporting by Ercan Gurses, Tulay Karadeniz and Ece
Toksabay; Writing by Nick Tattersall; editing by Ralph Boulton)
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