USDA
turkey report hints at fewer birds for Thanksgiving meals
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[June 17, 2015]
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S.
Department of Agriculture's monthly turkey hatchery report on Tuesday
showed a significant decline in the number of poults, or young turkeys,
placed on feed in May, suggesting supplies of fresh whole birds may
tighten this Thanksgiving.
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But analysts are at odds about how much the shortfall will impact
shoppers planning Thanksgiving Day meals as many of the birds
available in stores are slaughtered and frozen long before the
November holiday.
The worst-ever U.S. outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza,
or bird flu, has raised concerns about higher turkey prices this
holiday season. The outbreak has claimed about 7.8 million turkeys
in seven states this year, many of them culled to control the virus'
spread.
The losses represent a sliver of total U.S. production that was
pegged at 237.5 million turkeys in 2014, according to USDA data.
Tuesday's monthly report showed poult placements dropped to 21.6
million in May, down 1 percent from the prior month and 7 percent
from a year earlier.
Amanda Martin, senior analyst with Indiana-based Express Markets Inc
Analytics, said that Tuesday's report offered a "hint" of the bird
flu's impact since an unknown number of breeder flocks were hit by
the outbreak. A clearer picture may come with a USDA poultry
slaughter report on June 25.
At 22.3 million, total poults hatched last month fell 8 percent from
May 2014, and were down 4 percent from April 2015.
May placements would be going to slaughter between August and
October, depending on whether birds are hens or toms. Martin noted a
May and June deadline for placing heavy tom poults for them to be
ready to be sold as whole birds at Thanksgiving.
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"To see that it is down 7 percent makes me think, that's probably
going to mean the whole birds for Thanksgiving are going to be
extremely hard to come by," said Martin.
Others downplayed the impact and blamed the drop in placements on a
"bunching effect" in production cycle.
National Turkey Federation spokesman Keith Williams noted that most
shoppers buy turkeys that are frozen and those consumed this
November were produced before the bird flu struck the upper Midwest.
USDA's May 22 Cold Storage Report showed there were 394.4 million
pounds of turkey in cold storage during April 2015, up 5.2 percent
from April 2014.
(Reporting By Theopolis Waters and Karl Plume; Editing by Bernard
Orr)
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