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 The 1994-1998 famine killed hundreds of thousands of people, but
experts say the emergence of grassroots markets and an unofficial
economy since then mean most North Koreans can grow and trade food
independently of the state, decreasing the risk of widespread
starvation.
The isolated country has been hit by what it describes as its worst
drought in a century. While that may be an exaggeration, the United
Nations has warned of a potentially sharp rise in malnutrition.
"Agriculture is much less state-run and much more private than it
used to be, and the farmers who work for themselves work better and
with greater efficiency," said Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin
University in Seoul.
"North Korea is highly unlikely to experience another famine even
remotely similar to what happened in the late nineties".
North Korean farms are collectives in which the state takes control
of crops and distribution. There was previously little incentive for
farmers to produce more.
But as a result of the 1990s famine, the state has been tolerant of
farmers maintaining small, privately-run plots on state farms and in
their backyards. There, they grow grains and vegetables, often more
efficiently than on the sprawling state collectives, which they can
consume or even sell.
That means that while the country still retains a "military-first"
system where food and electricity is prioritized for the powerful
armed forces, the civilian population is not likely to suffer as
much.
One NGO worker, citing a knowledgeable North Korean agricultural
scientist, estimated that farmers there spend an average of 30
percent of their time cultivating their own plots.
It is not uncommon to see rows of corn or other crops growing in the
gardens of rural homes. On some collective farms, a small portion of
fields is often cordoned into a grid system of plots privately
cultivated and managed by families.
North Koreans who have been mobilized to work extra hours to combat
this year's drought have also redoubled efforts to farm private
plots, according to the Daily NK, a Seoul-based website with market
sources inside North Korea.
"Today's North Korean economy is essentially disguised capitalism -
low-level trade hiding in the shadows or private businesses wearing
masks of state-socialism," said Sokeel Park of LiNK, an NGO which
supports North Korean defectors.
CUT BY HALF
The North's KCNA news agency said last week that paddies around the
country, including the main rice farming regions of Hwanghae and
Phyongan provinces, were drying up for lack of rain.
On Monday, KCNA said North Korea had seen some rain, but it expects
drought conditions to linger.
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Production in the country's main growing region is expected to be
cut in half, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said
recently.
Weak rainfall this year in North Korea comes on top of last year's
lackluster rains. Parts of South Korea are also suffering this year
from some of the lowest rainfall since records began.
Pyongyang has a track record of overstating the significance of
natural events on its food situation, as doing so plays down the
impact of its outdated and state-controlled agricultural methods
while getting the attention of donors.
There are no readily available figures of crop output or food
reserves in the isolated country. Food smuggled from neighboring
China will likely help close gaps in supply, and Beijing has said it
is willing to offer aid to North Korea.
International aid for North Korea has decreased in recent years, in
part because of its curbs on humanitarian workers and reluctance to
allow monitoring of food distribution. The country is also under
U.N. sanctions for pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
In February, Pyongyang expelled the local director of
Welthungerhilfe, one of the few foreign aid groups to operate in the
country.
While the risks of mass starvation are much reduced, shocks to state
food supply caused by drought will cause market prices to rise.
The cost of potatoes, an alternative staple to rice in times of
short supply, roughly tripled over the past year at a market in the
city of Hyesan, according to the Daily NK website.
But even foreign food aid on which North Korea has long relied is
often distributed in unofficial markets, meaning food prices may
quickly return to normal.
Poorer or isolated areas of North Korea are still vulnerable to less
state supply of food, however, where drought could contribute to or
exacerbate pre-existing cases of chronic malnutrition.
(Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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