Jones' stock has doubled

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[June 23, 2015]  By Jonathan Ingram, The Sports Xchange
 
 With victories last weekend in the Camping World Truck Series and the Xfinity Series, teenager Erik Jones has confirmed he's on the fast track to the Sprint Cup.

As usual, Jones took the success in youthful stride.

"It's really cool to win two races in two states on the same weekend," said the 19-year-old of his victories at the Iowa Speedway and Chicagoland Speedway.

The question remains -- where will Jones race in the Sprint Cup and when?

Thus far, Jones has driven for Kyle Busch Motorsports in the Truck Series, where he has five career victories and five poles in 26 starts, and for Joe Gibbs Racing in Xfinity, where he now has scored two wins and four poles in 16 starts.

Those are very heady statistics for a driver at any age. As a result, Jones' arrival in Victory Lane in the Sprint Cup has been already ordained by some observers.

But consider the case of Joey Logano, a former rising star for JGR and Toyota.

He began his fulltime Sprint Cup career at age 19 -- within nine months after meeting NASCAR's minimum age of 18.

In his first season, "Sliced Bread" won a rain-shortened race in New Hampshire, but then won just one more race in the following three seasons. Since moving to the Fords of Penske Racing in 2013, the young man from Connecticut has blossomed into a major star -- much to Toyota's chagrin -- including a win at this year's Daytona 500.

Was Logano brought into the Sprint Cup too early and is that having an effect on the mapping of Jones' career by JGR and Toyota?

Dave Wilson, the president and general manager of Toyota Racing Development USA, has said he wants Jones to concentrate on winning a championship in the Truck Series this year. He wants the young man from Byron, Mich., to learn how to win a title over the course of an entire season.

Despite his Iowa victory and four other Top 5 finishes, Jones currently trails Matt Crafton by 26 points after nine of 22 races.

When it comes to the Sprint Cup, Jones substituted for Kyle Busch in the JGR Toyota earlier this year at the Kansas Speedway. The debut did not go well. He led a lap but a solo spin damaged his Camry.

Logano's experience remains a cautionary tale, in part because his extraordinary talent is now apparent. In retrospect, his youth worked against Logano among the established stars of the Sprint Cup, who are a very unique group.

The current NASCAR stars arrived and raced through the tragic era of fatalities when stock car racing lost five drivers during the span of 18 months in 2000 and 2001.

Since then, the current generation of drivers benefited from increased safety thanks to Head Restraints, SAFER barriers and the Car of Tomorrow. They also benefited from a new pay structure brought on by the $2.4 billion TV contracts signed with three networks that was launched in 2001.

The combination of concern about safety and the millions to be earned during long careers meant that overly aggressive driving was frowned on. Indeed, Matt Kenseth won the championship in 2003 with just one victory.

Even Jeff Gordon became more conservative. In his first eight seasons through 2001, he led an average of 1,100 laps per season. In six out of eight seasons, he led more than 1,000 laps.

In the years since then, Gordon has averaged 895 laps led and he's been over 1,000 laps only four times in 13 seasons.

After winning four championships through 2001, Gordon has not claimed one since then.

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Logano came along in 2008 and was considered the most talented driver to break into the Sprint Cup since Gordon, Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. Yet, when he made moves the veterans didn't like, his nose was figuratively bloodied on the track and the veterans called him out after the race was over.

The young man was often dumbfounded and hapless when it came to dealing with the veterans. He didn't seem to grasp where the line was on aggression. Ultimately, that led to the loss of confidence by the driver, his team and Home Depot sponsor.

He was replaced by Kenseth in 2013 and moved to Penske.

At Penske, Logano found a running mate in Brad Keselowski who understood how to go toe-to-toe with the veterans without giving any quarter. Keselowski's run-ins with various drivers in the Xfinity and Sprint Cup events could be summed up with the dramatic finish at the Talladega Superspeedway in 2009, where he beat Carl Edwards to the finish line and Edwards' Ford ended up in the fence -- and almost over it.

At Penske, Keselowski took Logano under his wing and the latter's confidence has returned. Last season, after advancing in the Chase with a win at Talladega, Keselowski explained from his point of view how veteran drivers had sought to regulate up-and-coming drivers.

"Look at the drivers that came through my era," said Keselowski. "I came into this sport, my first win here was in 2009 and my first full season was in 2010.

"Besides my teammate, Joey Logano, what other drivers came from that era and are successful? There isn't one. There is not one that came through those four or five years and that's for good reason. They've been run out of this sport and I'm not gonna let that happen (to us)."

In one respect, Jones is already running into a brigade of veterans that may stymie his progress.

JGR, where he has a development contract, has all its driver slots filled with veteran race winners. Except for Kyle Busch, who missed the season's first 11 races with injuries, Denny Hamlin, Kenseth and Edwards have all qualified for this year's Chase and there's little expectation for them to be moving on.

TRD's Wilson has vowed that Toyota will not lose another young star, adding that next year's schedule for Jones is already on the drawing board. That means Jones will either drive in the Sprint Cup for another Toyota team -- Rob Kauffman of Michael Waltrip Racing has made a standing offer -- or he'll spend next season trying to win a championship in the Xfinity Series.

It would be nice to see Jones enter the Sprint Cup next year in the same season as Chase Elliott and perhaps Ty Dillon. Two's company, but three bright young rookies would be a good crowd of much needed youth.

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