|
 He will need to overcome tensions between the black and Hispanic
communities in the city, aggravated under the 22-year term of Mayor
Richard M. Daley, which ended in 2011. There was a widespread
perception in the black community that Hispanic supporters of Daley
were favored in getting city jobs.
But while in 2011 majority African-American wards gave overwhelming
backing to Emanuel, who was previously President Barack Obama's
chief of staff, some disillusionment has set in since. A
persistently high crime rate, the decision to close 50 schools in
mostly poor areas, and a sense that Emanuel is out of touch with the
community and its problems has hurt him among black voters, some
political activists say.
After spending more than $7 million on television ads alone, Emanuel
won 45.5 percent of the vote in the first round last Tuesday - the
largest tally of the five contenders but short of the 50 percent
plus one vote needed to avoid an April 7 run-off.
Garcia, a soft-spoken 58-year-old Mexican immigrant and county
commissioner, who raised less than $1.5 million and only bought TV
ads in February, came in with 33.6 percent of the vote.
Emanuel’s backing in predominantly black wards slipped to just 42
percent, from about 59 percent in 2011, according to the Illinois
Election Data web site, while Garcia had 26 percent of the votes.
The other 32 percent in those wards went to the three other
candidates - two blacks and one white - who have now been eliminated
from the race, leaving those votes up for grabs.
Emanuel has stronger support in majority-white wards, with 52
percent, which is the same level that Garcia received in
majority-Hispanic wards.
In his bid for re-election, Emanuel has stressed that he is the only
candidate who can make tough decisions to rein in the city's budget
deficit, expected to grow to $1.2 billion by next year, and deal
with massive unfunded pension obligations for city workers. Garcia
has criticized Emanuel's authoritarian style, and said that while he
knows sacrifices are needed he would listen to residents before
making controversial cuts.
WASHINGTON'S COALITION
Chicago is a city where racial politics tend to spell out the
calculus of victory, especially given the three major ethnic groups
each have roughly the same number of votes.
There are, though, plenty of complexities – for example, the
Hispanic vote includes people with various countries of origin,
particularly Mexico and Puerto Rico. About 5.5 percent of the
population is of Asian descent.
In Chicago, building an African-American and Hispanic coalition is
no easy task. A "black-brown" coalition formed under the city's
first black mayor, Harold Washington, in the early 1980s, but was
never solid and fell apart after Washington's death in 1987, said
Delmarie Cobb, an African-American political consultant.
The resentment among blacks that was built up under Daley’s rule
persists today, Cobb noted.
"Now, there's even more of a feeling of us versus them," Cobb said.
"That's what Jesus has to overcome."
Emanuel does have powerful allies among African-American and
Hispanic leaders, including Obama and Illinois Congressman Luis
Gutierrez, who said after Tuesday's election Emanuel was
"well-positioned" to win the run-off.
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"Rahm's campaign is about making Chicago better for all Chicagoans -
from every neighborhood, background and family, and he's making his
vision for one strong Chicago clear everywhere he goes,” said
Emanuel campaign spokesman Steve Mayberry, when asked about support
in black and Hispanic wards. He cited in particular the mayor’s push
for a higher minimum wage, and initiatives to expand a kindergarten
program and to make community college places more accessible.
Garcia must convince residents of all ethnicities that he is a
viable politician to run the city and not just a protest candidate
used to send a warning to Emanuel, political strategists said.
He must also get more of the vote out – overall turnout for all
voters was 33.6 percent last Tuesday.
"If Chuy can win this race, it's because he can put together all
these different groups who aren't talking with each other as much as
they should be," said Kevin Lampe, a political consultant. "He has
to build a new coalition."
BRIDGING THE GAP
Garcia does have some major supporters within the black community.
He has, for example, the backing from Karen Lewis, the charismatic
black president of the powerful Chicago Teachers Union. Lewis had
planned a run against Emanuel herself but backed out after being
diagnosed with a brain tumor, and then threw her weight behind
Garcia.
Jonathan Todd, a black community activist, said Garcia's ethnicity
may have hurt him among some blacks. "We have to find a way to
bridge that racial gap," said Todd, who supports Garcia.
Despite his small campaign fund, Garcia has much positive momentum,
said political strategist Vince Casillas, Obama's Spanish-language
press secretary in 2008, who has friends on both sides. One thing
that will help is if Lewis campaigns for him, said Casillas. Another
strategy would be to organize in areas where schools were closed.
Cobb said that in the black community, Garcia needs to point to both
his alliance with Mayor Washington, and his current job as floor
leader for Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, another
powerful black politician.
Tamika Ford, 33, an African-American shop assistant who graduated
from one of the shuttered public schools, said Garcia's ethnicity
doesn't matter to her.
"Chuy could probably change things up a little," said Ford. "Obama
did it so why not Chuy? He's from a different culture and he's
looking out for all cultures, not just one side."
(Additional reporting by Fiona Ortiz; Editing by David Greising and
Martin Howell)
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