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 “Current expectations are for lower commodity prices in the
2015-16 marketing year ($3.50 per bushel of corn, $9 per bushel
of soybeans, and $5.10 per bushel of wheat),” said University of
Illinois agricultural economist John Newton. “In large part, due
to these lower commodity price expectations, USDA projects total
wheat, corn, and soybean planted acreage at 228 million acres in
2015, down 3.1 million acres from 2014.”
According to Newton, although USDA projects that plantings will
decline among the three commodities, recent reports actually
suggest that many U.S. farmers may be preparing to switch more
acres from corn into soybeans due to the lower costs of
production. Such a scenario would lead to increases in soybean
plantings for 2015. Trade guesses on soybean plantings for 2015
range from a low of 82.1 million acres to a high of 88.3 million
acres, 4.8 million acres above the record plantings of 2014. On
average, the trade guess suggests a 2.3-million-acre increase to
86.0 million acres of planted soybeans for 2015.
“In light of the average trade guess, USDA surprised the market
by dismissing expectations for increased soybean plantings and
projecting fewer soybean acres planted in 2015,” Newton said.
“For 2015, USDA projects planted acres of soybeans at 83.5
million acres. If realized, this total would represent a 200,000
acre decline from 2014 and is significantly less than the
average trade guess of 86.0 million acres. With respect to
harvested soybean acres, the USDA projection is for 82.6 million
acres, down 500,000 acres from 2014 but 2.7 million acres less
than the average trade guess of 85.3 million acres.
USDA projections for the U.S. average soybean yield are 46
bushels per acre, 1.8 bushels below the record 2014 yield, and
0.8 bushels above the average trade guess. The USDA yield
projection is approximately 1.7 bushels higher than a
trend-yield forecast of 44.3 bushels per acre.
“Combining the USDA projections for soybean yield and harvested
acres, the 2015 soybean crop is projected to be 3.8 billion
bushels and would only be 169 million bushels below the record
2014 crop,” Newton said. “Importantly, while USDA projections
are surprisingly low for planted and harvested soybean acres,
USDA projected yield is above market expectations. These two
measures effectively offset each other, and the projected size
of the soybean crop is only 56 million bushels below the average
trade guess of 3.856 billion bushels.
“Consumption of soybeans during the 2015-16 marketing year is
expected to increase on improved exports and crush to a total of
3.776 billion bushels,” Newton said. “Despite the improvement in
soybean consumption, supply is still expected to outpace demand,
and projected 2015-16 ending stocks are 430 million bushels, up
45 million bushels from current marketing year projections but
76 million bushels below the average trade guess of 505 million
bushels. Due to the projected increase in stocks, USDA forecasts
that the marketing-year average soybean price will decline $1.20
per bushel to $9.”
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With respect to corn, USDA projects planted acres of corn in
2015 at 89 million acres. If realized, this total would
represent a decline of 1.6 million acres from 2014 but is only
slightly less than the average trade guess of 89.1 million
acres. With respect to harvested corn acres, the USDA projection
is for 81.5 million acres, down 2 percent from 2014 and only
100,000 acres less than the average trade guess of 81.6 million
acres.
USDA projection for U.S. average corn yield is 166.8 bushels per
acre, 4.2 bushels below the record 2014 yield, and 1.8 bushels above
the average trade guess. “Depending on how yield is estimated, the
USDA projection is approximately 2.8 to 4.7 bushels higher than
trend-yield forecasts (farmdoc Daily Feb. 9, 2015),” Newton said.
“Combining the USDA projections for corn yield and harvested acres,
the 2015 corn crop is projected to total 13.595 billion bushels and
would only be 621 million bushels below the record 2014 crop. This
total is 131 million bushels higher than the average trade guess and
is driven by the higher yield estimate.”
Consumption of corn during the 2015-16 marketing year remains
unchanged from earlier estimations and is projected at 13.760
billion bushels. The anticipated decline in corn production,
combined with the increase in corn use, results in projected 2015-16
ending stocks of 1.687 billion bushels, down 140 million bushels
from current marketing-year projections but 83 million bushels
higher than the average trade guess. Despite the projected reduction
in carryover stocks, USDA forecasts the marketing-year average corn
price will decline 15 cents per bushel to $3.50.
“At this point in time, and contrary to market expectations, USDA
does not anticipate a significant increase in soybean acres,” Newton
concluded. “In fact, when including cotton, other feed grains, rice,
and Conservation Reserve Program, total cropland is expected to
decline by 4.7 million acres to 278.8 million acres in 2015. Whether
or not the trade believes these projections will be tested in the
coming months, information to monitor includes the ongoing pace of
2014-15 marketing-year consumption and USDA’s 2015 Prospective
Plantings report released on March 31, 2015.”
Following the Prospective Planting report USDA will update the
2015-16 Grain and Oilseeds Outlook in the World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates report released on May 12, 2015.
[Debra Levey Larson, University of
Illinois College of ACES] |
