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 They left with a blunt message from Pakistan: the Taliban must end
a rift between two top leaders, or talks might never get off the
ground.
The warning was a reminder of how tough it will be to get insurgents
and the Afghan government around the same table, let alone agree a
lasting peace, even with help from Pakistan, the Taliban's erstwhile
backer that still wields influence over them.
The two senior Taliban figures in question are political leader
Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, who favors negotiation, and battlefield
commander Abdul Qayum Zakir, a former Guantanamo Bay detainee, who
opposes talks with Kabul.
Mansour and Zakir, long-time rivals, met recently to resolve their
personal differences, slaughtering sheep for a feast to mark the
occasion, according to two Taliban sources.
But Mansour was unable to persuade Zakir to reverse his opposition
to direct talks with Kabul, which he sees as "wasting time" because
the United States holds real power in Afghanistan, the sources
added.
 The latest peace initiative, considered more promising than recent
doomed efforts because of Pakistani and Chinese mediation, is aimed
at ending an escalating conflict in which hundreds of Afghans are
killed every month.
The potential breakthrough comes after foreign combat troops
withdrew at the end of 2014, leaving a smaller training force of
about 12,000.
SECRECY AND OFFICIAL DENIALS
Many obstacles to peace remain. Both sides are deeply suspicious and
the Taliban are expected to demand the immediate withdrawal of the
remaining foreign troops, a request Afghan President Ashraf Ghani
appears sure to reject.
Still, the process is at least moving, according to accounts from
several Taliban sources in Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as
senior Pakistani and Afghan officials.
This week, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and
Pakistan, Daniel Feldman, made an unannounced visit to Islamabad to
discuss the possibility of talks, the Pakistani army confirmed.
And in late February, a delegation led by Qari Din Mohammad Hanif of
the Taliban's political office in Qatar met in Islamabad with
Pakistani army leaders and Chinese diplomats, according to accounts
by two Taliban commanders and two senior Pakistani officials.
The Taliban's official spokesman denied the visit took place.
China's foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said reports its
diplomats in Islamabad met with Taliban representatives "do not
accord with reality".
However, according to two senior insurgent commanders with direct
knowledge of the visit, the Taliban delegation to Islamabad traveled
on to Quetta, the southwestern Pakistani city where many Taliban
leaders remain in hiding, to brief them on the preliminary
discussions.
"They said Pakistani officials had advised them to remove our
internal differences before starting formal talks with Kabul," one
of the Taliban commanders said by telephone.
Because Zakir holds sway over several thousand fighters in eastern
Afghanistan, it is uncertain if any ceasefire could hold were he to
continue opposing direct talks with Kabul.
The verdict of Mullah Mohammad Omar, the Taliban's reclusive supreme
leader, could prove key, if it comes.
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He has not been seen in public since the U.S.-sponsored toppling of
the Taliban after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.
Afghan security reports seen by Reuters late last year indicated
Zakir openly questioned whether Omar was alive.
SEARCHING FOR "MIDDLE GROUND"
Some experts are more hopeful of progress this time around because
of a Pakistani threat to arrest or expel Taliban leaders if they do
not negotiate with Kabul.
That could force the Afghan Taliban to cut ties with al Qaeda and
the separate Pakistani Taliban, or TTP.
Renewed Pakistani pressure on the Afghan Taliban was galvanized by
the TTP's massacre of 132 students in December at an army-run school
in the Pakistani city of Peshawar.
In return for Pakistani support for talks, Afghanistan has targeted
TTP strongholds in its eastern Kunar province, near the Pakistan
border - an indication of improving relations under Ghani's
leadership.
"It's early, but the signs are good," said Saifullah Mahsud, head of
the FATA Research Centre, an Islamabad-based think-tank.
"The Afghan Taliban have their financiers, their businesses, their
families here. The Afghan Taliban are smart enough to know that the
Pakistani state is a better contact than the TTP."
Another new development is willingness by the Taliban to open talks
without preconditions, said a senior Pakistani official with direct
knowledge of the process.
However, Taliban representatives have indicated that, should talks
begin, they would make demands including the immediate departure of
all foreign troops.
A senior aide to Ghani said anticipated Taliban demands, which may
also include re-imposing the harsh interpretation of Islamic law the
movement enforced during its five-year rule, would be unacceptable.
The aide said Pakistani intermediaries were "working to find middle
ground", but so far reported no change in the Taliban stance.
"If these demands are not softened," the aide said, "the first day
of talks could become the last day of talks."
(Additional reporting by Hamid Shalizi in Kabul, Katharine Houreld
in Islamabad and Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Writing by Kay Johnson;
Editing by Mike Collett-White.)
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