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 Polls in two of Israel's leading newspapers predicted the Zionist
Union would secure 25 or 26 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, against
21 or 22 for Likud. All polls in the past three days have given the
same margin of victory.
No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel's 67-year
history, making coalition-building critical to the formation of a
government.
Because there are more parties on the right and far-right of the
political spectrum, Netanyahu was expected to be able to cobble
together a coalition more easily than the center-left, even if he
narrowly loses the vote.
But there was positive news for the Zionist Union on that score too,
with a poll of Israeli-Arabs showing the overwhelming majority would
favor their united Arab party joining a center-left coalition
government.
The survey showed 71 percent thought the Joint Arab List, which
groups four Arab parties and enhances their electoral clout, should
sign up with the Zionist Union, while 16 percent said it should
support the coalition from the outside.
 With the Joint Arab List expected to win 13 to 15 seats, it has
become an important player in the election - it could end up being
the third largest group in parliament, giving a powerful voice to
Israel's 20 percent Arab minority.
If the Zionist Union, jointly led by Labour party leader Isaac
Herzog and former justice minister Tzipi Livni, wins, it is expected
to link up with the far-left Meretz party (5 or 6 seats) and the
centrist, secular Yesh Atid (13 seats).
With the Arab list on side too, it would need the support of just
one more party with around 5 or 6 seats to cross the threshold of 61
and form a coalition.
That said, while the arithmetic is possible, it is still
challenging. Israel's coalition-building is a messy and convoluted
game that can spring surprises at the last minute.
POST-ELECTION BATTLE
When he called this election in December, Netanyahu looked to be in
a commanding position and set for a fourth term. But the past three
months have exposed vulnerabilities in his armor after nine years in
power spread over three terms.
His campaign focus on security issues and on the threat from Iran's
nuclear program has failed to inspire voters, who consistently say
that economic issues, including soaring house prices and the high
cost-of-living, are their chief concerns.
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Netanyahu's much-criticized speech to the U.S. Congress on March 3
also appears to have marked a turning point. Rather than giving him
an electoral boost, with his face on primetime TV, polls turned
against him shortly after the event.
He has also relentlessly attacked Herzog, a man of small stature
with a reedy, slightly high-pitched voice. But Herzog has countered
with a quick sense of humor and sharp intellect.
With the conflict with the Palestinians barely mentioned, there are
signs that voters are growing fed up with Netanyahu's hard-charging
style of leadership. One poll published on Friday showed 72 percent
of Israelis say a change is needed.
In the past two days, Netanyahu has talked more about economic
issues and his ideas for bringing housing prices down, but it may be
too little, too late. Earlier this week he said there was a "real
danger" he could lose and he took a similar line in an interview on
Friday, urging his supporters to vote.
"Don't stay at home and don't waste your votes," he said on local
radio, sounding like he was suffering from a cold.
"I will not be elected if the gap is not closed and there is a real
danger that Tzipi and Bougie will form the next government," he
said, referring to Herzog by his nickname.
(Additional reporting by Ori Lewis; Writing by Luke Baker)
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