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 The centre-left opposition is poised for a surprise victory over
Netanyahu's right-wing Likud in one of Israel's most nail-biting
elections in years, according to the last polls. Nearly six million
Israelis are eligible to vote in Tuesday's election.
Yair Lapid, a telegenic former news anchor and TV host, leads the
centrist, secular Yesh Atid party ("There's a Future"), which
emerged out of the cost-of-living protests that swept Israel in
2011.
The party came a surprise second in the last election in 2013 and is
again set for an influential showing.
"The majority of Israelis want change," Lapid, 51, told Reuters in
between campaign events.
"The Netanyahu era is coming to an end. That's not because security
issues don't matter but because social and economic issues are
dominating the agenda," he said in an interview.
"Netanyahu has missed his moment. You can't blame him - it's never
easy to know when the moment of your era passes. But for him it has
passed."
 Lapid was finance minister in Netanyahu's outgoing government but
the two seldom saw eye-to-eye, and it was the dismissal of Lapid and
Justice Minister Tzipi Livni in December that precipitated these
elections.
When Netanyahu called the vote he looked set to secure a fourth term
in office, which would have put him on track to become the country's
longest-serving prime minister.
But his focus on the threat from Iran's nuclear program and Islamist
militants in Gaza and the region left voters uninspired, with even
long-running Likud supporters saying they had heard such rhetoric
before.
Netanyahu's speech to the U.S. Congress, criticized by many at home
and in Washington, also appears to have marked something of a
turning point. Before the speech, he was broadly ahead in opinion
polls but his numbers have trailed off since, with his anti-Iran
message failing to gain traction.
Final polls published on Friday nearly all showed the Zionist Union,
the centre-left opposition alliance led by Isaac Herzog and Livni,
holding a four-seat advantage going into the vote.
"KINGMAKER"
No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel, meaning
coalition-building is critical. It is also a tricky and
unpredictable affair, with a vast array of allegiances possible
among the 11 parties expected to end up in parliament.
Even if Netanyahu and Likud win fewer seats than the centre-left,
they could still end up forming a coalition, especially as there are
more like-minded parties on the right and far-right than there are
on the center or left.
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That puts kingmakers like Lapid in a commanding position. Going into
the 2013 election, Yesh Atid was predicted to win 13 seats and ended
up getting 19. Lapid reckons a repeat of that is possible this time
around and some analysts agree.
His party is known for having a strong grassroots organization, and
activists say Israel's polling methods, which largely rely on fixed
line calls rather than mobile ones, fail to capture the party's
support among young urbanites.
"Around 15 percent of voters make up their minds on the day and
we're pretty good at tapping into those people," said Lapid, who is
fond of wearing t-shirts with a suit jacket and jeans. Polls do show
his party carrying momentum into the vote.
A problem, though, is how easily the centre-left could build a
coalition if it wins. Lapid is a natural ally, but he has in the
past been critical of ultra-Orthodox parties, which the centre-left
needs onside if it is to cobble together the necessary 61 seats in
the 120-seat Knesset.
Asked about the Orthodox factions, Lapid would not rule out working
with them, and equally would not rule out working with Netanyahu
again. In Israel's cloak-and-dagger coalition negotiations, such
flexibility is key to survival.
If the centre-left does win and manages to form a coalition, Lapid
believes it opens the way for a re-engagement with the Palestinians,
an issue that has been frozen for nearly a year and which is
unlikely to be unfrozen if Netanyahu returns.
It may not happen right away, he says, but if Israel's socioeconomic
challenges can be addressed, tackling the conflict with the
Palestinians will flow naturally from that.
Lapid and the Zionist Union leaders all openly discuss the
possibility of an independent Palestinian state, something Netanyahu
will barely mention.
"There is a wind of change, and if there is a wind of change on
domestic issues, there is going to be a wind of change on
Palestinian issues as well," said Lapid. "It's not something done in
one leap, it's a triple jump, but it's coming."
(Writing by Luke Baker; Editing by Sonya Hepinstall)
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