|
 In many respects the vote has turned into a referendum on "Bibi"
Netanyahu, in power for a total of nine years spread over three
terms. If he wins again he would be on track to become Israel's
longest-serving prime minister.
Netanyahu's campaign has focused on the threat from Iran's nuclear
program and the spread of militant Islam. But it's a message many
Israelis say they are fed up with and as a result the center-left's
campaign on socio-economic issues, especially the high cost of
living in Israel, appears to have won more traction with voters.
When the last opinion polls were published on March 13, the
center-left, known as the Zionist Union and led by Isaac Herzog,
held a four-seat advantage over Netanyahu's right-wing Likud, a
margin that had it set for a surprise victory.
But in the last three days of campaigning, Netanyahu went on a blitz
to try to shore up his Likud base and attract votes from other
right-wing, nationalist parties, promising more building of Jewish
settlements and that the Palestinians would not get their own state
if he were re-elected.
Those bold pledges, if carried out, would further isolate Israel
from the United States and the European Union. But they may go some
way towards convincing voters to plumb for what they know rather
than others on the right.
 Surveys show around 15 percent of voters are undecided, meaning the
ballot could sway widely - opinion polls have rarely been a precise
predictor of Israeli elections in the past.
Voting ends at 2200 local (1600 ET) on Tuesday, with the first exit
polls published immediately afterwards.
If Netanyahu can draw votes from other right-wing parties, he may be
able to close the gap with the center-left and be in a position to
be asked first by Israel's president to try to form a governing
coalition.
No party has ever won an outright majority in Israel's 67-year
history, making coalition-building the norm. It is also an opaque
and highly unpredictable game, with any number of allegiances
possible among the 10 or 11 parties expected to win a place in the
120-seat parliament, the Knesset.
COALITION TACTICS
Since there are more parties on the right and far-right of the
spectrum, Netanyahu is probably better placed to cobble together a
coalition, even if he narrowly loses the election. But if the
center-left does win by four or more seats, it should get the nod
first to try to form a coalition.
Under sunny skies, Netanyahu went to vote early, going with his wife
and one of his sons to a ballot box in a school near their family
home in Jerusalem. He acknowledged that it was a tight race and
urged voters to back the right.
"To prevent the rise to power of a left-wing party, there is only
one thing to do - close the gap," he said.
Herzog, who has overcome criticism of his slight stature and reedy
voice to lead a resilient campaign, voted in Tel Aviv, where he
emphasized that the vote was about a new direction.
[to top of second column] |
"Whoever wants to continue the way of Bibi - despair and
disappointment - can vote for him," he said. "But whoever wants
change, hope, and really a better future for Israel, vote for the
Zionist Union under my leadership."
The son of a former president and the grandson of one of Israel's
foremost rabbis, Herzog, 54, is as close as it gets to having a
Kennedy-style heritage. While his leadership has been critiqued in
the past, he has shown wit and intellect on the campaign trail,
bolstering his image among voters.
"For the first time in my life, I'm going to be voting for Labour,
that is the Zionist Union," said Dedi Cohen, 39, a lawyer in Tel
Aviv. "The risk of Netanyahu building the next government is too
big. How long has he been in power? Nine years? It's too much.
Enough."
Whatever happens in Tuesday's vote, the key will be in coalition
building, with three or four parties critical to how the balance of
power ends up tipping.
Moshe Kahlon, the leader of Kulanu, a centrist party that broke away
from Likud, is seen as perhaps the most important "kingmaker". A
former communications minister credited with bringing down mobile
phone prices, Kahlon could ally with either Netanyahu or Herzog,
bringing up to 10 seats with him.
Yair Lapid, the leader of the centrist Yesh Atid party, is another
power-center. He also could ally with either the right or the
center-left, bringing somewhere between 12-14 seats with him. But he
does not sit comfortably with religious parties, making him less
flexible in coalition negotiations.
If the center-left is to put together a coalition, it needs at least
61 seats, meaning as well as Kahlon or Lapid and the far-left Meretz
party, it would need the support of the ultra-Orthodox parties,
which are expected to win around 13 seats.
Another factor is the Arab parties, which for the first time have
united under one list. That has strengthened their standing with
voters and they are expected to win around 13 seats as well. While
they are unlikely to join a center-left coalition, they could give
it tacit support in parliament, which could give the center-left
leverage over Netanyahu.
(Additional reporting Dan Williams in Tel Aviv; Editing by Sophie
Walker)
[© 2015 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
Copyright 2015 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 |
