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 American Pharoah is the early favorite at 5-2 coming off four wins
in a row, while stablemate Dortmund, also trained by three-time
Derby winner Bob Baffert, is rated a 3-1 pick and coming to
Churchill Downs with six wins in six races.
Third choice Carpe Diem (8-1), trained by Todd Pletcher, has won
four of five career races and co-fourth pick Materiality (12-1) is
3-for-3, bidding to become the first horse to win this race for
3-year-olds without racing as a 2-year-old.
The favorites like to run out in front, which could make for a
hectic start at Churchill Downs as 19 horses strive to get into
favorable position by the first turn.
From Baffert’s perspective, the Derby will be won, and lost, in the
moments after the gates open.
“Our horses are not going to be coming from out of the clouds,” said
Baffert, whose Dortmund drew the eighth position, while American
Pharoah starts from the 17th lane. “The break is going to be the
key.”
Riding American Pharoah will be two-time Derby winner Victor
Espinoza, who rode last year's champion, California Chrome.
“He rides with a lot of confidence and he’s been here at the big
dance,” Baffert said.
Martin Garcia has ridden the unbeaten Dortmund for all his races.
“This is the first time that he’s going to ride a horse that
actually has a really good chance to win (the Derby), so I’m sure he
will be a little nervous,” Baffert said.
“He knows his horse. He’ll just put him in a nice spot."
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Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum's Mubtaahij, listed at 20-1,
won the UAE Derby by eight lengths and will attempt to win the 'Run
for the Roses' without the benefit of a single U.S. prep race.
Mubtaahij, who has never been worse than second in his last five
starts, would be the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby after
racing the UAE Derby.
Mark Casse, trainer of Danzig Moon (30-1), hopes the frontrunners
will burn themselves out.
“I would like to see a fast pace and have us be about 10 lengths
behind,” Casse said. ”Hopefully the pace comes apart at the seams
and we can pick them up.”
(Reporting by Larry Fine in New York; Editing by Peter Rutherford)
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