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 The world's top oil exporter has always prized stability,
developing policies slowly and altering them rarely, partly because
of the need to balance rivalries among ruling family members and
their conflicting interests.
That may now be changing. Since inheriting the throne from his
brother in January, King Salman has embarked on a war in neighboring
Yemen, restructured the oil sector and shaken up domestic
governance, including the line of succession.
Whether this is the beginning of a much more assertive foreign
policy aimed at countering rival Iran, a new energy strategy or a
more authoritarian security approach, as analysts have speculated,
remains unclear.
But what is increasingly apparent is that Riyadh's new rulers enjoy
more scope to make dramatic and unexpected interventions than their
predecessors did.
"If the king wants, for example, to send ground troops to Yemen, he
doesn't have to call the whole family to do that any more," said
Jamal Khashoggi, general manager of television station al-Arab.
 While the monarch has always had the last word in policy decisions,
he has usually had to win consensus among a group of powerful
princes, often his own brothers, for any big changes.
That no longer appears to be the case, as a growing number of
offices are absorbed into the hands of a new triumvirate of the king
and his two heirs, his nephew Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef and
his son Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
"If you look at the two princes, they are controlling the state
under the supervision of the king," said Khalid al-Dakhil, a Saudi
political scientist.
CONCENTRATED POWER
Salman will be the last son of the kingdom's founder Abdulaziz to
rule Saudi Arabia, following five older brothers who were each
constrained by important siblings who had built up independent power
bases in the administration or armed forces.
He is the last of a group of princes who established their
credentials as part of the ruling elite in the early 1960s by
backing the winning side in an internal power struggle, and who
collectively dominated for the past five decades.
While several of Abdulaziz's 35 sons survive besides Salman, those
who have held senior positions have been sidelined by age or as part
of the monarch's recent changes, including his youngest brother,
Muqrin, who was removed as crown prince.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, already Interior Minister, now
heads a super-committee that decides on big security and political
issues, while Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is Defence
Minister and head of a committee on the economy and development.
The only strategic entity held by a prince from another faction is
the National Guard, an elite military unit headed by the late King
Abdullah's son Miteb, although other ruling family members serve as
provincial governors.
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Unlike under previous kings, the intelligence agency and foreign
ministry are controlled by commoners beholden to royal patrons, and
in strategic government departments like defense and interior, no
deputy ministers are princes.
UNPREDICTABILITY
A further sign of growing consolidation came with last week's
decision to split state energy company Aramco from the Oil Ministry,
a move that could improve the prospects of another of Salman's sons,
Abdulaziz, becoming minister.
At the same time, Aramco was given a new supreme council headed by
Prince Mohammed bin Salman, making him the first Al Saud member to
directly oversee the world's biggest oil company, which has
historically been kept away from royal politics.
Some analysts have speculated that the changes represent a final
victory for the Sudairi branch of the ruling family, the descendents
of seven sons of Abdulaziz born to his favorite wife, including both
Salman and the crown prince's father Nayef.
But it is far from clear whether the ties that for decades united
brothers whose place in the succession was clear will survive their
own deaths and continue to bind cousins who might regard each other
as rivals rather than partners.
The five other Sudairi branches do not feature in the new
dispensation. Instead, power appears to be consolidated among the
individuals who are named in the line of succession and who control
strategic departments.
That appears to put the levers of government in the hands of
Mohammed bin Nayef, 55, and his 30-year-old cousin Mohammed bin
Salman. One other consequence of a more concentrated power
structure, however, is that the succession is less predictable.
King Salman got rid of an heir chosen for him by his predecessor.
There are no guarantees that Mohammed bin Nayef will not eventually
do the same.
(Editing by Catherine Evans)
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