King Salman's abrupt decision to skip the U.S.-hosted regional
talks shows how Gulf rulers, displeased by what they see as U.S.
indifference to Iranian meddling in the Arab world, may hesitate to
bless any final nuclear deal that President Barack Obama reaches
with Tehran.
Some analysts and diplomats in the Middle East and Washington
interpreted Salman's decision to stay away from the meeting at the
Camp David presidential retreat as a diplomatic snub, despite
denials from U.S. and Saudi officials.
Riyadh announced the monarch's no-show on Sunday, only two days
after the White House had said he would attend the summit of Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) states - some of which have long doubted
Obama's commitment to confronting Iranian backing of Shi'ite Muslim
militias across the region.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who has strong ties with the U.S.
political and security establishment, will represent Saudi Arabia at
the May 13-14 gathering along with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, the king's son who serves as the defence minister. Since
Salman took power in January, the pair have determined most aspects
of Saudi policy.
Only two of the Gulf countries - Kuwait and Qatar - will be
represented by their ruling monarchs, while the others are all
sending lower-ranking officials.
U.S. officials quickly pushed back against the notion that Gulf
Sunni Muslim allies downgraded their attendance to signal
dissatisfaction with Obama's diplomacy with Shi'ite Iran ahead of an
end-June deadline for a landmark nuclear deal.
The White House announced that Obama had spoken by phone to Salman
on Monday, apparently trying to show that relations remained on a
solid footing.
Ben Rhodes, Obama's deputy national security adviser, said the
administration was convinced that the president would have "the
right group of people around the table" at Camp David. "These are
the people responsible for the security portfolios," he told
reporters in a pre-summit briefing.
The Saudi government said one of the main reasons Salman was
skipping the summit was because it overlapped with a five-day
humanitarian ceasefire in neighboring Yemen, where a Saudi-led
coalition is waging a bombing campaign against Iran-allied Houthi
rebels.
The leading Gulf Arab power has complained for years that Washington
does not take its concerns seriously. It thinks a focus on settling
the dispute over Tehran's nuclear program has distracted the United
States from more urgent problems and raised questions about broader
security commitments to the region.
SEEKING TO PLACATE ALLIES
Seeking to reassure the Gulf allies, White House officials said on
Monday the summit would produce announcements on integrating
ballistic missile defense systems and increasing joint military
exercises.
They said there would also be a statement outlining both U.S. and
Gulf states' commitments but were vague about whether that would
entail the written U.S. assurances that some Gulf diplomats have
sought. The U.S. officials said, however, that they told Gulf states
they would not offer a defense treaty, which would face steep
obstacles in Congress.
Washington is also poised to offer new weapons under a push for a
joint region-wide missile defence system, senior U.S. officials said
last week.
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"The conspiracy theorists of old have been proven right. The U.S.
creates threats for us and then offers us more weapons systems. That
does not bode well for us," said Sami Alfaraj, a Kuwaiti security
adviser to the six-nation GCC. Riyadh believes Iranian support for
militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen is the biggest cause of
regional instability, aggravating sectarian tensions, undermining
strong government and boosting Sunni Muslim jihadists.
The Saudis fear Obama sees a settlement between world powers and
Tehran as his legacy. Such a deal on the nuclear program - which the
West believes may be aimed at building weapons despite Iranian
denials - could lift international sanctions without taming the
country's regional ambitions, they think.
Backing from the GCC - made up of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar,
Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman - is important for
Obama to show Congress that the Iran deal has broad regional
support, despite Israeli opposition.
Salman expressed guarded support for a framework nuclear agreement
reached last month, but insists any accord must be robust,
verifiable and no threat to Tehran's neighbours.
Echoing White House denials, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir
told reporters in Washington that the notion of a snub by Salman was
"really off-base," and he insisted the king's absence was not
related to any disagreements between the two countries.
But others in the region cited reasons for Saudi disappointment.
"Their experience of six years from Obama is assurances, promises,
nice words. But at the end of the day they got nothing in their
hands," said Mustafa Alani, an Iraqi security analyst with close
ties to the Saudi crown prince's Interior Ministry.
Some diplomats in the region believe the absence from Camp David of
King Salman and close ally King Hamad of Bahrain, host of the U.S.
Fifth Fleet, may backfire.
"Of course it (Salman's non-appearance) is a snub. But I don't think
Obama is going to put up with this. He wants the nuclear deal. It is
the number one priority," said a Western diplomat based in the
region.
(Additional reporting by Sylvia Westall in Beirut, William Maclean
in Dubai, Jeff Mason, Roberta Rampton and Warren Strobel in
Washington; Editing David Stamp and Stuart Grudgings)
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