The severity of the punishment for the New England Patriots star
combined with a spate of overturned NFL sanctions bode well for
Brady in the appeals process, experts said.
The four-time Super Bowl champion and one of the league's marquee
players has said he will appeal the penalty, handed down on Monday
for his part in deflating footballs for the AFC title game in
January.
The appeal, which must be lodged by Thursday at 5 p.m. ET (2100
GMT), would follow a flurry of questions about NFL Commissioner
Roger Goodell's handling of other high-profile cases last season.
Brady's four-game suspension is seen as harsh by many, who note it
is the same as what is handed to first time offenders violating the
league's rules on performance-enhancing drugs, and double the number
of games Goodell initially gave Baltimore Ravens star Ray Rice for a
domestic violence incident.
The league later changed Rice's punishment to an indefinite
suspension of the running back, who knocked out his wife in a New
Jersey elevator, only to have that decision turned aside on appeal.
"The NFL has typically won most of the appeals, but they're on a bit
of a losing streak lately," said Robert Boland, a former NFL agent
and currently professor of sports management at New York
University's Tisch Center.
Brady's failure to cooperate with the investigation - one of the
reasons cited in the penalty - might not stand up on appeal, Boland
added.
"It wasn't that he failed to appear or speak to the NFL, it was that
he refused to give up phone records that were personal to him," he
said. "I think that may be an overstep. There's a real possibility
that this penalty will be reduced."
'MISDEMEANOR IS A FELONY'
The NFL took a harder-than-usual line with Brady in the wake of an
outcry over its handling of domestic abuse cases this season
involving several players, including Rice.
"I don't think you would have seen this penalty a year ago," said
Michael Cramer, director of the Texas Program in Sports and Media at
the University of Texas-Austin. "This is a strong penalty.
"It is almost like the NFL has told us a misdemeanor is a felony and
we now have to consider that and it forces people to say he must
have really done something wrong."
The NFL said the Patriots likely deflated the footballs below league
standards on purpose so Brady could grip the ball better in cold and
wet conditions during their 45-7 rout of the Indianapolis Colts that
put New England in the Super Bowl.
Brady was "more probably than not" aware of the scheme, Ted Wells,
an attorney hired by the NFL to look into the allegations, said in a
243-page report.
Wells on Tuesday angrily disputed remarks by Brady's agent Don Yee
that the NFL "reached a conclusion first, and then determined
so-called facts later."
"All of this discussion that people at the league office wanted to
put some type of hit on the most popular, iconic player in the
league - the real face of the league - it just doesn't make any
sense," he told reporters during a conference call. "It's really a
ridiculous allegation."
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While the team and head coach Bill Belichick were exonerated of
wrongdoing in the scandal, New England was still fined $1 million
and forced to give up two draft choices, a first-round pick in 2016
and a fourth-round pick in 2017.
After their victory over the Colts, the Patriots defeated the
Seattle Seahawks 28-24 to win the Super Bowl, which some now view as
tainted.
ARBITRATOR IS KEY
Matthew Mitten, professor of law and director of the National Sports
Law Institute at Marquette University Law School, said if a truly
independent arbitrator - one without ties to the NFL - is chosen to
hear the case, Brady is likely to have his penalty reduced.
"It's pretty unlikely they would say, 'Well, there wasn't any
justification to impose any discipline," he said. "It's more likely
the suspension would be cut to a game or two."
Once Brady, 37, formally files an appeal, Goodell will have a week
to announce he will hear the case, or appoint a hearing officer of
his choice. The Patriots have not said whether they will appeal the
penalties imposed on the team.
Speculation is that Goodell will choose Harold Henderson to hear an
appeal of Brady's case. A former NFL executive, he heard the appeal
of Minnesota Vikings player Adrian Peterson, who was suspended last
season for beating his child with a switch.
Henderson upheld Peterson's suspension but the players union took
the case to federal court and won. The judge sent the case back to
the NFL for further proceedings under the collective bargaining
agreement. He will also hear the 10-game suspension handed to Greg
Hardy for a domestic abuse incident.
If Brady loses his appeal, he could turn to the court system just as
Peterson did.
A defamation lawsuit would be difficult for Brady to win because the
burden would be on him to prove not only that what was said about
him was false but that it was said with reckless disregard for the
truth, said Robert Corn-Revere, a media lawyer in Washington.
"He would have a real uphill battle," Corn-Revere said.
(Reporting by Steve Ginsburg; Editing by Alan Crosby)
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