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 Failure of “fast-track” legislation, which would grant Obama the
power to speed the deal through Congress, would mark a huge blow for
the president, who has made a deepening of ties with Asia one of his
top foreign policy priorities.
It would also be a large political setback for Obama, who has worked
hard for congressional approval of the trade bill, even engaging in
a highly public debate with Elizabeth Warren, a prominent Democratic
senator who is popular with many progressives who form the core of
his political base.
A vote to advance debate requires 60 votes in the 100-member Senate.
The bill itself would then face a lower, a majority-vote threshold
for approval, and conversations with aides and senators suggest this
week's vote will be tougher than last.
Amendments to stop currency cheats and a raft of unrelated
legislation are slowing the bill as Congress rushes to close deals
ahead of the Memorial Day holiday.
 "Everything here makes it tougher; we just have to keep plodding
ahead," said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch.
A week ago, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell got 65 senators
to agree to bring the measure for debate. However, at least three
legislators who had previously supported the bill threatened to
defect because of an impasse over the future of the federal
government's Export-Import Bank, which provides support to U.S.
exporters.
Trading partners such as Japan have pinned their hopes of selling a
Trans-Pacific Partnership that will cover 12 countries and 40
percent of the world economy on a "yes" vote that would lead to a
speedy closing of the strategically important deal.
ALL TIED UP
With the Senate and House hurtling toward a 10-day Memorial Day
recess at week's end, there were negotiations throughout the Capitol
on fast-track and reauthorizing Ex-Im, which is due to close on June
30 if its mandate is not extended.
Highway funding and domestic surveillance programs, which expire at
the end of this month unless Congress acts, also found their way
onto the crowded agenda, with Senator Rand Paul staging an
hours-long speech against renewing the surveillance program,
interrupting the Senate's work on fast-track.
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The result is that the debate over fast-track was bleeding into
other issues.
Some lawmakers are eager to insert measures into fast-track that
would crack down on countries that manipulate the value of their
currencies to make their exports more competitive, with a particular
eye on TPP partner Japan.
They want tough rules with real sanctions included in the bill,
although Senate Finance Committee leaders have proposed an
alternative that nods to legislators' concerns but that critics say
lacks real teeth.
The battle over trade caused the White House to threaten to veto
fast-track if sanctions with bite were included in the bill. Of
current senators, 51 signed a 2013 letter calling for enforceable
currency rules in trade deals.
Even if fast-track passes the Senate, it faces a tougher battle in
the House. House Republican Matt Salmon, who is helping to round up
support among conservatives, said a strong Senate majority would
help his cause.
"It's going to be a really heavy lift," he told reporters.
(Editing by Lisa Von Ahn and Steve Olofsky)
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