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 The European Commission, the OECD and the EBRD all say Greece is
heading into recession again this year and next, sinking back into
the mire after last year's positive reading ended a six-year
depression.
The light at the end of the tunnel, all three say, may be some
growth returning during next year - but it is highly dependent on
economic and banking reform.
There will be arguments about why Greece remains in such a state -
from accusations in Athens that lender-imposed austerity has crushed
the life out of the economy to gripes from Brussels that Prime
Minister Alexis Tsipras's leftists wasted what improvements had been
achieved.
The two sides are again at loggerheads - albeit possibly temporarily
- over reforms and bailout cash, with the added complexity that
Tsipras does not want to see indebted Greeks lose their homes while
the country is providing food and housing for thousands of
asylum-seekers.
But there is no disagreement among the forecasters about the
direction the Greek economic is heading.
Both the Commission and the OECD (the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development) see a 1.4 percent contraction this
year, while the EBRD (the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development) sees 1.5 percent.
This is particularly severe given the first half of the year saw
growth of 1 percent, put down to Greeks running out to buy durable
goods ahead of a threatened "Grexit" from the euro zone.
PAIN AND PLEASURE
There is more divergence among the forecasters about next year. The
Commission and OECD see a contraction of 1.3 percent and 1.2
percent, respectively.
The Commission reckons much of this will be carry-over effects from
this year's political and economic turmoil, which included a failure
to complete the previous bailout program, a referendum on austerity,
a bitter fight with lenders, and the introduction of capital
controls, many of which remain.
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The EBRD, however, expects a decline of 2.4 percent. Its mere
involvement is significant, given that it only added Greece to its
bailiwick of mainly poor, emerging economies this year.
If there is any good news for Greece it is that all three
forecasters see growth returning in 2016.
The EBRD offers no 2017 projection but says growth may start again
in next year's second quarter, while the Commission predicts 2.7
percent and the OECD 2.1 percent in 2017.
The rub is that all projections are predicated on Athens taking the
reform steps the government has committed to but railed against in
the past.
"Growth is likely to return (on a quarter-on-quarter basis) perhaps
by the second quarter of the year provided investment picks up and
reforms are implemented," the EBRD said.
(editing by John Stonestreet)
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