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 One will be the voters whom the surging presidential candidate
needs to do well in early voting states such as Iowa and New
Hampshire. The other will be the deep-pocketed donors, some of whom
have stayed on the sidelines as the Republican race has progressed,
who Rubio needs to mount a large-scale national campaign.
To date, Rubio has been a middle-tier contender, both in his showing
in the polls and his campaign contributions. He is not leading in
any early-voting state and has lagged other candidates such as Jeb
Bush and Ted Cruz in terms of fund-raising.
But after his break-out performance in the last Republican debate,
another strong debate performance could change that. For donors, a
debate can be much valuable than highly scripted campaign events to
measure how a candidate stands up to scrutiny, fends off barbs and
frames issues.Strategists and donors say the pressure is on Rubio to
show that he is ready to unseat Bush, who has tumbled in the polls,
as the first choice among the Republican establishment.
 “Right now, the establishment money guys are wondering, If not Bush,
then who?” said Saul Anuzis, a former chair of the Michigan
Republican Party who is backing Cruz. “Rubio has to show the
leadership establishment types that he would be a good alternative
to Bush.”
Added Ron Bonjean, an unaffiliated Republican strategist: “This
could be a make-or break performance for Bush among key donors.”
Because of his relative youth, Cuban-American background, and
telegenic appeal, Rubio, 44, has long been viewed by pundits as
perhaps the party's best hope to defeat the likely Democratic
nominee, Hillary Clinton.
And since the last Republican debate, when Rubio, a first-term U.S.
senator, was widely praised for his command of the stage, there is a
sign that a shift is taking place. Paul Singer, a hedge-fund
billionaire who pumped millions into the 2012 elections, came out
for Rubio late last month. Then Brian Ballard, a top Florida
fundraiser, defected from Bush’s camp to Rubio’s.
“There are a lot of people in Jeb’s world who are concerned right
now,” said a source close to Rubio’s campaign. “If Jeb is not the
nominee, they want to see Marco do well.”
Several other big-money donors from the last presidential election
have also been sitting out this one. Chief among those is casino
magnate Sheldon Adelson, who supported Newt Gingrich’s 2012 bid with
a massive infusion of cash into the political action committee
backing the former House of Representatives speaker.
R.C. Hammond, a former aide to Gingrich, said a strong night by
Rubio on Tuesday could help win over Adelson and other donors who
could then help fortify the super PAC aiding him. “If I’m Rubio, I’m
looking for a super PAC donor to step forward and say I got your
back,” Hammond said.
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Such committees can spend millions on ads defending a candidate and
attacking his rivals.
This week, a super PAC supporting Cruz released an ad ripping Rubio
and his support for a Senate immigration-reform measure. And while
Cruz is not expected to go after Rubio directly at Tuesday's debate,
his campaign told Reuters that Cruz, a U.S. senator from Texas, if
given the chance, will draw a contrast between his positions on
issues such as immigration and Rubio’s.
For his part, Bush is likely to continue to highlight Rubio’s
relative lack of political experience as compared with his record as
a two-term Florida governor. Bush’s attempt to criticize Rubio in
last month’s debate, however, backfired when Rubio got the best of
the exchange.
Bush is running out of chances to change perceptions of his
candidacy.
"Given that the next debate is not until Dec. 15, I think most of
the unattached donors on the Republican side are looking to make a
commitment in the next month," said one high-level Rubio donor, who
asked not to be named. "I think a lot of donors wrestled with his
inexperience and his youth, but now they see him as best suited in
the race."
Rubio raised just $6 million during the third-quarter, far behind
Bush, Cruz and Ben Carson. And two committees supporting Rubio, both
dubbed Conservative Solutions, lag behind those backing Bush and
Cruz.
The economic-themed debate in Milwaukee, moderated by the Fox
Business Network, likely will play to Rubio’s strength, whose
campaign has focused on the “sharing economy,” higher-education
reform and a proposal for a new tax credit for families.
"It's prime-time," Hammond said. “This is when the winners are going
to be defined.”
(Reporting by James Oliphant and Erin McPike Writing by James
Oliphant; Editing by Leslie Adler)
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