"There are a lot of good race car drivers and lots of circumstances
that could play out to have things go wrong," said Harvick. "You go
there with a fresh start like you've never won there before and try
to get the car dialed in."
Although last year Harvick needed a win at Phoenix and got it to
advance to the final round at the Homestead-Miami Speedway - here he
won again to clinch the title - there is a lot at stake again this
year. He is second in points in the Eliminator round and can clinch
a berth in the finale at the Homestead-Miami Speedway if he finishes
as high as third and leads a lap. But a victory would prevent three
rivals from advancing.
Penske Racing drivers Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski are in sore
need of a victory at Phoenix to advance. For Logano, 63 points below
the cut line, it's his only hope. For Keselowski, who is sixth and
19 points below the cut line, it's virtually the same story.
The Penske teams have been front runners the entire season and
Logano was gunning for his fourth straight win this season when he
was intentionally crashed by Matt Kenseth at Martinsville. So if
either of the Penske drivers makes it to Homestead, he will be a
strong contender.
Kurt Busch, a teammate of Harvick at Stewart-Haas Racing, is 26
points below the cut line and virtually needs to win in order to
advance. A two-time winner this season, Busch may have cooled off
but cannot be counted out on tracks like Phoenix or Homestead -
where Busch clinched his championship in the first year of the Chase
in 2004.
This year's defending champ has been down this road before. Harvick
needed a win to advance out of the first round of this year's Chase
and led 216 laps before running out of fuel two laps from the
finish. He went on to win at Dover to advance.
Harvick said he doesn't necessarily enjoy an edge - although the car
being prepared by crew chief Rodney Childers for Phoenix won there
in the spring. "I feel like that (edge) can be gone at any point,"
said Harvick. "That's the hardest thing about having success. You
have to have an open mind to try new things to keep moving forward.
If you don't have an open mind or are not willing to try a fresh
approach, then it will get stagnant. You're going to become stale
and get left behind."
Becoming stale is a problem throughout a season or during a race.
Last week in Texas, it appeared Keselowski would advance to
Homestead with a victory while leading 312 laps. But the mid-race
adjustments made by Jimmie Johnson improved his Hendrick Motorsports
Chevy enough to overtake the Ford driver at the finish. Keselowksi
and his team were a little too conservative when it came to making
adjustments for the changing conditions of the track and got beat as
a result.
There is an edge in knowing what has worked in the past, said
Harvick. "As we go to Phoenix, we have to look at the things that
we've done well. Obviously, we've done a lot of good things. We look
at the race tape and pay attention to the lines and braking,
steering, throttle and all the things that you have access to and
you try to mimic that immediately when you get on the racetrack."
But adapting to the prevailing conditions is the key. Last week in
Texas, a sunny day that followed limited practice during overcast
and rainy conditions was a case study in teams trying to adapt
quickly. Harvick was among those who suffered tire problems that
Goodyear engineers attributed to teams not having enough time to
find the edge of the envelope when it came to tire wear. Harvick was
lucky not to lose lap or damage his car when twice he had to make
unscheduled pit stops for tire troubles.
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"The hard part about our sport is the conditions are never the
same," said Harvick. "The tire is constantly changing. You never
know if it's going to be 100 degrees (ambient temperature) or if
it's going to be 50 degrees. That makes a big difference on the
balance of the car, how much downforce it makes and how much tape
you can run on the front. There are all kinds of things to navigate
through once you get there."
One prevailing condition that has changed is the balance of power
during the Chase. At the outset, the teams of Penske and Joe Gibbs
Racing were the dominant powers. Harvick and his Chevy team were on
the ropes after contact with Johnson in Chicago cut a tire and sent
him into the wall. Johnson fell out of the Chase after a parts
failure. Dale Earnhardt Jr's poor finish in a Hendrick Chevy at
Charlotte eventually took him out.
But more recently, it's been Penske and the Gibbs teams on the
ropes. Kenseth was literally knocked out by Logano in Kansas and
returned the favor at Martinsville. Keselowski lost the lead to
Chevy driver Johnson in the closing laps in Texas. Also in Texas,
the Gibbs team had three contenders whose front splitters were
confiscated by NASCAR officials - and the team's Toyotas ended up
being less than competitive.
Coming into Phoenix, the Hendrick and Stewart-Haas Chevy
conglomerate are looking like the guys to beat. Jeff Gordon has
already clinched a finals berth with his win at Martinsville. And
Harvick, whose team uses Hendrick chassis and engines, needs only a
solid run at Phoenix to make it as well.
Despite his four straight wins at Phoenix - where the Penske team
has never won a NASCAR race - the odds are still against Harvick,
who is seeking to become the only driver other than Richard Petty or
Darrell Waltrip to win five straight times at a single track.
The last time a driver won as many as five in a row on current
tracks occurred at Bristol Motor Speedway in 1983, when Waltrip won
a fifth straight en route to seven straight for car owner Junior
Johnson. Better financing for a wider array of teams has made it
difficult for any one driver to dominate at a single track for the
last three decades. The competitiveness of the Chase era has only
made it more difficult.
But in a tumultuous Chase year, Harvick has performed at his best
when the most incentive is on the line.
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