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 While the unconstrained Trump has a comfortable double-digit lead
over the soft-spoken Carson, the data points to a possible emerging
threat to Trump's hopes of capturing the party's nomination for the
November 2016 election.
The poll of likely Republican primary voters also shows that Carson
is drawing strong support from the rural Midwest, including Iowa,
which holds the first Republican nominating contest on Feb. 1.
Trump, in contrast, is drawing strong support in the northeast and
southeast.
That geographical divide is significant, analysts said, because
Carson's dominance in more socially conservative states like Kansas,
Iowa and Nebraska reflects how his story of personal redemption is
resonating strongly with evangelical voters. They traditionally play
an outsize role not just in the first nominating contest in Iowa on
Feb. 1, but in Nevada and South Carolina, which also hold nominating
votes in February.
"If Carson keeps his nose clean he could win those states and could
catch lightning in a bottle," said Ford O'Connell, a Republican
strategist not affiliated with either campaign.
Trump, who has topped national polls of likely Republican primary
voters for months, has until now enjoyed strong support among the
key constituency of low-income, blue-collar, church-going voters,
who have been attracted by his image as a straight-talking political
outsider.
But Carson's similar appeal as an outsider taking on the Republican
establishment has undercut Trump's support in recent weeks, and
Carson has surged to the top of a few recent national polls.
Carson's growing support with women and blue collar voters may
explain Trump's recent attacks on his rival, said O'Connell. Trump
has highlighted media reports questioning elements of Carson's
personal story, and on Thursday he called Carson "pathological" and
likened him to a child molester.
"OUTSIDER VOTE"
"Trump is desperate to consolidate the 'outsider' vote. The blue
collar vote is very, very key to Trump's success in that. He has
tried everything to shake Carson off and it hasn't worked, so he has
decided to go nuclear," said O'Connell, an advisor to Republican
Senator John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign.
To be sure, a separate rolling five-day Reuters/Ipsos poll shows
Trump surging to 42 percent of likely Republican primary voters, up
from 25 percent, since Nov. 6 while Carson was flat at 23 percent.
The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment on the
polling data.
Barry Bennett, Carson’s campaign manager, said of Trump's heightened
criticism of Carson: “It’s hard to explain his remarks but clearly
he’s feeling some pressure and overreacting.”
Bridget Miller, 43, from Stilwell, Kansas, said she had initially
considered voting for Trump, but had switched to Carson. "Carson is
pro-life; he's pro-gun; he's saved baby's lives. He speaks to a lot
of our values here," she said.
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Other likely Republican primary voters say they initially supported
Trump but his latest criticism of Carson and his "child molester"
comments only confirmed their belief that he is unsuited to the
presidency.
Janis Anderson, 54, from Fargo, North Dakota, said she had
considered Donald Trump, but his latest comments about Carson were
“ridiculous.”
Trump still either leads or shares the lead among most geographical
and demographic groups, including wealthy and middle-income voters,
people with and without college degrees, the southeast, northeast,
the Upper Midwest and the American West.
But the story is different among lower-paid workers. In September,
Carson had just over 14 percent of support among voters in
households with an annual income of $50,000 or less, according to
the broader Reuters/Ipsos data. By the end of October, that had
jumped to over 23 percent support. Trump's support in the same group
was flat at around 33 percent.
Among likely female Republican primary voters, Carson has seen his
support jump since September from about 19 to 27 percent - the
highest of any Republican candidate - while Trump's has slipped from
30 percent to 25.
Carson's support among regular churchgoers has also risen sharply,
according to the Reuters/Ipsos survey, jumping 10 points between
September and November to 32 percent, the highest of any Republican
candidate. Trump's support with religious voters has slipped from 26
percent to 22 percent.
"As the campaign has evolved over time, Trump has begun to wear a
little bit thin, especially voters who want a softer, more
gentlemanly approach to politics," said David Gergen, an adviser to
four former U.S. presidents from both parties. "Carson is wearing
better with women than Trump."
The surveys of likely Republican voters was taken from Sept. 1 until
Oct. 31. The Reuters/Ipsos poll has a credibility interval, a
measure of accuracy, of 3 to 8 percent.
(Editing by Ross Colvin)
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