As the U.S. senator from Florida rises in opinion polls of
Republicans, his gains are coming from voters over the age of 50,
and most from those older than 65, according to Reuters/Ipsos
polling.
Although Rubio is running third overall behind Donald Trump and Ben
Carson, he is tied with Carson with 12 percent among those older
than 65, up from only 7 percent in late October.
Yet his support in the online survey is flat among voters his own
age and younger. He registers at just six to seven percent among
Republicans younger than 49.
In interviews with two dozen of the poll respondents over 50, 14
preferred Rubio after watching Republican debates this fall because
they believed he was best able to stand up to his opponents while
projecting a positive tone rather than acidity.
Two-thirds of those interviewed also mentioned being attracted to
the Cuban-American senator's personal history, which he has worked
into key moments in each debate as Republicans fight to win their
party's nomination for the November 2016 election.
“Rubio’s initial bump in the polls is due to older voters really
liking his story,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray,
whose surveys also found increases for Rubio among older voters in
early voting states like New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Evoking the American Dream, Rubio often talks about his parents who
fled Cuba for the United States where they worked as a bartender and
maid. He talks about being raised from paycheck to paycheck and
working to put himself through college.
Sixteen of the 24 older voters Reuters spoke to this week also cited
Rubio's relative youth compared with many of the other leading
candidates as a positive attribute.
Rose Jegierski, 67, from Albany, New York, was among them. “He’s got
more pep and vinegar than an older man.”
Four of those voters even compared Rubio to John F. Kennedy, a
Democrat elected president in 1960 aged 43.
“I think he would be like Kennedy,” said Rhoda Pelliccia, a
76-year-old Republican New Yorker living in Florida. “Kennedy was
young and look what he did.”
RELIABLE OLDER VOTERS
Rubio’s advisers say they are not surprised or worried by the
disparity and point out that older Americans are a crucial group
because they reliably go to the polls.
While pollsters say he must broaden his appeal and attract younger
voters to secure the nomination, Rubio’s aides say the candidate has
no plans to change his message and they believe younger voters
eventually will come his way.
“Our message is entirely about the future, but a part of that is
creating an America where parents can pass on a better country than
the one they inherited,” Rubio’s chief strategist, Todd Harris,
said. “Older voters understand that because they’ve lived it and
it’s what their parents did for them.”
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Some elements of Rubio's agenda seem targeted to younger voters like
those with children. He is proposing to allow approved investors to
help students finance a post-secondary education. Himself a father
of four, he wants an expanded child tax credit that would jump to
$2,500 per child under 16 from $1,000 today.
But several younger voters said they were less familiar with Rubio
than with Trump and that they preferred the real estate mogul
because he would represent more of a change from the status quo in
Washington.
LeighAnn Mangum, a 33-year-old accountant from Mississippi, said she
had a positive impression of Rubio but felt Trump stood out as
having a strong performance on the debate stage. "He is something
new," Mangum said of Trump.
Rival campaigns chastise Rubio for personal financial mistakes such
as facing foreclosure on a home and cashing out some retirement
savings.
But Monmouth's Murray said that Rubio's financial struggles are part
of why older people relate to him. Minnesota voter Roger Olson, 64,
said he thinks 99 percent of the country has gone through similar
trouble.
Rubio says he still owed $100,000 in student loans just four years
ago, a message aimed at showing he understands challenges facing
young people and middle-class families.
All the same, Rubio is taking great care to address entitlement
programs and the concerns of senior citizens, who often make up the
bulk of audiences at his campaign events.
“I’m from Florida. You may not know this, but there are a lot of
people in Florida on Medicare and Social Security,” he says, barely
pausing for his crowds to laugh, as they realize how many older
voters retire in the southern state. “One of them happens to be my
mother. And I can say this to you right now unequivocally: I am
against anything that is bad for my mother,” he said in Bedford, New
Hampshire last month.
Rubio vows not to change those programs for the already retired or
for those nearing retirement age. But he acknowledges that they must
change for future generations.
(Additional reporting by Megan Cassella; Editing by Alistair Bell)
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