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 The drop, revealed this week in annual data provided by the
country's 21 petroleum engineering departments and made available to
Reuters, is modest - the number of enrollments dipped just 1 percent
from a record high of 11,332 hit last year when oil was around $100
a barrel.
With oil now at around $45, the 21 departments estimated that
enrollments would fall by a further 7 percent next year.
Coming after years of steep gains that could mark the start of a
long slide similar to one that followed a price slump in the 1980s
and continues to leave a hole in the industry's workforce, some
department heads and industry experts said.
"The students who haven't made a long term commitment yet are making
a change based on what they are seeing," said Lloyd Heinze,
professor of petroleum engineering at Texas Tech University, who
compiled the data.
Penn State University will graduate its largest petroleum
engineering class ever next year, according to Turgay Ertekin, the
head of the university's department of energy and mineral
engineering. But enrollment this year dropped to 782 from 860, and
the university estimates it will drop further to 565 in 2016.
 "Petroleum engineering degrees will lose attractiveness in the years
to come," Ertekin said. "Last time it lasted for 20 years," he said.
Past data shows it takes about two years for a dive in oil prices
and a subsequent slowdown to discourage students in meaningful
numbers. A quick rebound in prices could temper the enrollment drop.
Still, it is a worrying prospect for oil companies that have
struggled with a graying workforce and skill shortages for much of
the previous decade; many workers that joined in the early 1980s are
now retiring.
OMENS FROM THE '80S
In 1983, with U.S. oil fields gushing, 11,014 students enrolled in
petroleum engineering programs, according to the Texas Tech data,
but by 1990 the industry was in a slump and that number had dropped
to 1,387.
Enrollments remained below 2,000 until 2005 when oil and gas
companies began finding ways to extract significant amounts of oil
and gas from shale rock deposits, paving the way to a drilling boom
that had lasted well into last year. (Graphic:
http://link.reuters.com/wuj75w)
Now there are signs of that cycle repeating itself.
The number of oil companies at job fairs fell this year, according
to professors and students who attended such events.
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Major oil companies, such as Chevron and ConocoPhillips have also
cut the number of internships they offer and it has become harder to
land interviews with prospective employers in the sector, students
said.
ConocoPhillips acknowledged that it was being forced to adapt to the
downturn, but did not elaborate.
"We are actively evaluating what our programs look like going
forward. It's clear that our programs and targets will change," a
company spokesman said.
Chevron did not respond to requests for comment.
Joseph Triepke, managing director of Oilpro.com, a job and
networking website for oil professionals, said lower recruitment now
could hurt productivity in the future by leading to labor
constraints, talent shortages and project delays.
"The real concern is that when we recover, will we be able to grow
to meet demand?" he said.
David Kong, 29, who enrolled in a graduate geology program at
California State University in Bakersfield three years ago and
completed an internship at Chevron this summer, is already
considering other options.
Kong is thinking of using his undergraduate major in mechanical
engineering to pursue a career in environmental regulation.
"I would advise joining students to be aware," Kong said. "These
booms and busts happen often. You always have to watch out and have
a plan B when oil prices drop."
(Reporting By Edward McAllister; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
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