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The
National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast sales from November to
December 2015 at $630.5 billion, excluding autos, gas and
restaurant sales. The growth rate would be significantly higher
than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent, though slower than the
4.1 percent increase in 2014, the NRF said.
The industry lobby's forecast is a closely watched benchmark for
the upcoming holiday season.
NRF President and Chief Executive Officer Matthew Shay said
while some economic indicators have improved, U.S. consumers
remained "somewhat torn between their desire and their ability
to spend" due to worries about the economy.
“Potential disruptions from yet another government shutdown in
mid-December and a slower pace of job creation and income growth
are just a few key factors that will impact holiday shoppers’
spending this year,” Shay said in a release.
The NRF said holiday sales will account for 19 percent of the
industry's $3.2 trillion in annual sales. Many retailers earn an
outsized portion of their profits during the holiday.
Online sales are expected to increase by 6 percent to 8 percent
during the holiday to as much as $105 billion, the NRF
predicted.
NPD's chief industry analyst, Marshal Cohen, has predicted 2.8
percent to 3.2 percent sales growth, down from 3.5 percent last
year, excluding groceries and autos, for November to
mid-January. The low end of that forecast would mark the slowest
growth since 2009.
Other groups have also forecast slower growth this holiday
season, reflecting concerns about the impact of stagnant income
growth as well as turmoil in financial markets.
Consulting firm AlixPartners has forecast 2.8 percent to 3.4
percent growth this holiday season, compared with growth of 4.4
percent in 2014.
(Reporting by Nathan Layne in Chicago; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)
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