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 The Russian leader has never appeared more confident and his grip
on power never more secure. In the past two years he has
outmaneuvered the West in Crimea, eastern Ukraine and Syria. Western
sanctions have apparently failed to blunt his ambition.
But some of Putin's former allies, those who have fallen from grace
during his 15 years in power, paint a different picture: Putin's
position as Russian leader may be far less assured, they say.
"Putin is a hostage of his entourage," Sergei Pugachev, who once
counted the Kremlin chief as a close family friend, told Reuters in
an interview in Paris.
The animosity between Pugachev and the Russian government is well
documented. Pugachev says his $15 billion business empire spanning
shipbuilding, coal and real estate was expropriated by Kremlin
rivals. He is suing Russia for $12 billion. Russia, meanwhile, is
seeking Pugachev's arrest for embezzlement and misappropriation of
assets, charges Pugachev denies.
Given the secrecy of Putin's Kremlin, it was impossible to confirm
Pugachev's account. But interviews with other Russian businessmen
and foreign diplomats painted a similar picture, albeit a partial
one.
The descriptions may offer rare first-hand views of Putin's court
and some clues about a question that has preoccupied oligarchs,
Western governments and even Putin's advisers: How long will Putin
remain as Russia's paramount leader?
For Pugachev, the keys to the puzzle are Putin's perceptions of his
own personal safety, finding a successor and the clan battles over
the spoils of a former superpower.
"Until he finds a path to an arrangement which secures his safety,
he will remain in power," Pugachev said.
"He no longer has confidence in his closest circle and if I were in
his place I would not trust them either: What they say to his face
and what they say when he is not there is completely different."
When asked about Pugachev's comments, Putin's spokesman Dmitry
Peskov said: "We see them as the words of a citizen who is on a
wanted list."
CZAR PUTIN?
Since Putin was appointed acting president by Boris Yeltsin on Dec.
31, 1999, he has been cast, variously, as Czar, reformer, secret
policeman and Russia's richest man.
In diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks in 2010, U.S. diplomats
depicted Putin as Russia's "alpha-dog" autocrat who ruled by
allowing corrupt officials and spies to steal. The Kremlin called
that idea ridiculous.
Friends and enemies have cast Putin as a leader attempting to unite
modern Russia with its Soviet superpower past and the mystical
traditions of pre-revolutionary Orthodox Tsars.
The Kremlin has shown Putin grappling with a Siberian tiger while
supporters this year unveiled a bust in his home town showing him as
a modern Caesar. The New York Review of Books has written of "The
Emperor Vladimir".
But Pugachev's description of a less secure leader chimes with the
views of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest man, who was
arrested in 2003 before his YUKOS business empire was ripped apart
and its main production units taken over by Gazprom and Rosneft.
"No matter what the PR machine and propaganda of the Kremlin might
say, President Putin is no superman," Khodorkovsky, who was freed in
2013 after a decade in Russian jails, told an audience in London in
February.
"The Russian business and ruling elite is becoming increasingly
anxious in response to Putin’s political course; even those who are
loyal to him. It is obvious that autumn has arrived for Putin."
MOSCOW RULES
For Pugachev, the cruder interpretations of Putin's power miss the
underlying instability of post-Soviet Russia: Putin must navigate
the chaotic clan battle for wealth with care.
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"These people, it is the way they are, will serve anyone who defends
their venal interests," Pugachev, 52, said of the clans around
Putin.
"These people are hostages to their crimes - basically the whole
establishment - and they need someone who will at minimum represent
their interests. If the situation changes and they consider Putin is
not sufficiently defending their interests then I think anything
could happen."
Behind the patriotic swagger of wealthy Muscovites, according to
this analysis, there lies a danger for Putin: The fall in the oil
price and Western sanctions for his war in Ukraine have reduced the
profits of this moneyed class.
A Western diplomatic source said Putin was poorly informed and it
was unclear how long he would remain in power given Russia's
economic problems. The rouble has halved in value against the U.S.
dollar since 2012, the year Putin was elected for a third term.
"In these situations, you see nothing and then all of a sudden it
goes," the diplomat said.
An influential Russian businessman, speaking on condition of
anonymity because of a Russian taboo on discussing Putin's future,
said: "The economy is very bad."
"These situations are impossible to predict but they can change very
fast. When it happens it goes very fast," the Russian said. He used
the Russian word for 'brittle' to describe the current economic and
political situation.
LEADER FOR LIFE?
Pugachev said Putin's shift toward confrontation with the West over
Ukraine flowed from his reliance on the guidance of hardliners
inside the Kremlin.
"He trusted the hawks and he has had a lack of success. He is not a
leader of the hawks himself but over the 15 years he has migrated
between the different circles," he said.
Another Russian businessman with knowledge of the Kremlin cast Putin
as an isolated leader who understood he could never leave power.
"No one tells him the truth," said the Russian who spoke on
condition on anonymity. "He cannot leave. He knows that. He believes
in plots."
One Russian emigre, however, cautioned against overestimating
internal opposition.
"Yes, Vladimir Putin has to take into account interests of various
stakeholders," said Sergei Guriev, an economist who fled Russia in
2013 for France.
"However, in the current system - certainly, since the Yukos affair
- nobody within the Russian elite could come even close to him in
terms of power and authority. If he personally decides to do X, no
clans or elite groups will be able to stop it."
So will Putin stay in power for life?
"It is difficult for me to say how it all ends," Pugachev said. "I
think that stagnation is probably here to stay for a long time."
(Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by Janet McBride)
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