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 "Without rapid, committed, and widespread action to reduce smoking
levels, China will face enormous numbers of premature deaths," said
Liming Li, a professor at the Academy of Medical Sciences in Beijing
who co-led a large analysis of the issue.
The study, published in The Lancet medical journal, found that
two-thirds of young men in China start to smoke, mostly before age
20, and that unless they quit for good, around half of those who
start will eventually die from their habit.
The scientists conducted two large, nationally representative
studies 15 years apart, tracking the health consequences of smoking
in China. The first was in the 1990s and involved a quarter of a
million men. The second study is ongoing, and involved half a
million men and women.
The results showed annual number of tobacco deaths in China, mostly
among men, had reached a million by 2010. If current trends continue
it will be 2 million by 2030.
Among Chinese women, however, smoking rates have plummeted and the
risk of premature death from tobacco is low and falling, the study
found.
The researchers said the consequences are now starting to emerge of
a large increase in cigarette smoking by young men in recent
decades. The proportion of all male deaths at age 40 to 79
attributed to smoking has doubled to around 20 percent now from
about 10 percent in the early 1990s. And in urban areas this
proportion is higher, at 25 percent and rising.
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Smoking causes lung cancer, which is often fatal, and is the world's
biggest cause of premature death from chronic conditions like heart
disease, stroke and high blood pressure.
Richard Peto a professor at Britain's University of Oxford who
co-led the research, said price hikes on cigarettes in China may be
one way to reduce smoking rates.
"Over the past 20 years tobacco deaths have been decreasing in
Western countries, partly because of price increases. For China, a
substantial increase in cigarette prices could save tens of millions
of lives."
(Reporting by Kate Kelland; Editing by Toby Chopra)
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