Shares fall as Chinese data dims economic outlook

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[October 13, 2015]  By Jamie McGeever

LONDON (Reuters) - World share prices fell on Tuesday, snapping their longest winning streak since February after Chinese trade data gave a further sign the world's economic growth engine is sputtering.

A big fall in oil prices also weighed.

Chinese imports plunged 20 percent in September, casting doubt on the strength of domestic demand in the economy, while oil fell more than 5 percent overnight after a report that OPEC continued to boost production.

Those factors overshadowed a bumper merger deal, which saw the world's largest brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev <ABI.BR> take over number two producer SABMiller <SAB.L> in a cash and share package worth $104.4 billion.

Bond yields and emerging market currencies fell too, while dimming prospects of a U.S. interest rate hike this year pushed the dollar lower and lifted the euro above $1.14 for the first time in a month.

Weaker-than-expected UK inflation and German investor sentiment reports also pushed bond yields lower.

"The specter of slowing growth in the world's second biggest economy is now again presented in sharp relief – this in spite of the myriad of stimulus measures undertaken by the PBOC (central bank) over the past number of months," said Brenda Kelly, head analyst at London Capital Group.

The MSCI world share index fell 0.5 percent <.MIWD00000PUS>, its first fall in 10 sessions, ending the longest winning streak since February.

In Europe, the FTSEuroFirst 300 index of leading European shares was down 1.1 percent at 1,414 points <.FTEU3>, Germany's DAX was down 1 percent <.GDAXI>, France's CAC 40 was down 1.2 percent <.FCHI> and Britain's FTSE 100 was down 0.8 percent <.FTSE>.

In Asia earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS> fell 1 percent from a two-month high touched on Monday, while Japan's Nikkei <.N225> fell 1.1 percent.

Futures markets pointed to a fall of around 0.4 percent at the open on Wall Street <ESc1>, where investors will also focus on third quarter earnings from Intel <INTC.O> and JPMorgan.

THE DOLLAR YIELDS

China's trade data for September showed a 3.7 percent fall in exports from the same period last year, less than the 6.3 percent drop forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Imports, however, tumbled 20.4 percent.

The weakening economy prompted China's central bank on Monday to expand a scheme that increases banks' ability to lend, lifting mainland Chinese shares to seven-week highs.

On Tuesday, Shanghai shares edged up around 0.2 percent. It was the index's fifth straight gain, a run not seen since July.

Oil prices recorded their biggest fall in six weeks on Monday after a report that OPEC continued to boost crude production triggered a wave of profit-taking from last week's 11-week high. [O/R]

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Crude prices struggled to recover any of that ground on Tuesday, with Brent futures up only 0.2 percent at $49.97 per barrel and U.S. futures flat at $47.12.

The soft Chinese data and oil price weakness were reminders that inflation is not a problem, which fed into the view that the Fed is in no hurry to raise rates.

Fed Governor Lael Brainard reinforced such expectations, saying late on Monday the Fed should hold off on any interest rate hike until it is clear that a global slowdown, difficulties in China, and other international risks will not push the U.S. recovery off course.

The yields on 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell 4 basis points to 2.05 percent and 2.88 percent, while benchmark German Bund yields were down around 1 basis point.

The dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies dropped to 94.5 on Tuesday, its lowest in almost a month, and the euro rose as much as 0.5 percent to $1.1410.
 

"The drop in oil prices has taken Treasury yields back down again, and tightening in the Treasury/Bund spread encourages euro/dollar to probe the top of the current range - $1.1460 is the key level ... and a test looks likely," said Societe Generale currency analysts in a client note on Tuesday.

Commodity-linked currencies also slipped, with the Australian dollar falling 1 percent to $0.7285 <AUD=D4>, off a two-month high of $0.7382 set on Monday.

Emerging market currencies also lost momentum after recent gains. The Indonesian rupiah <IDR=> and the Malaysian ringgit <MYR=>, big winners last week from broad relief rally in risk assets, both fell about 1 percent.

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Jeremy Gaunt; To read Reuters Global Investing Blog click on http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting; for the MacroScope Blog click on http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope; for Hedge Fund Blog Hub click on http://blogs.reuters.com/hedgehub)

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