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 And for Biden, still mulling a presidential bid, that could pose a
problem.
As he calculates all the angles that would influence his candidacy -
a decision is reportedly coming within days - Biden has more than
the looming obstacle of front-runner Hillary Clinton to consider. As
a candidate, he would become the chief defender of a foreign policy
that critics say has been incoherent and that gets increasingly low
marks in public opinion polls.
Beyond Afghanistan, the White House is under fire for its response
to Russian action in Syria, where Vladimir Putin has assumed the
superpower role there that the United States has declined to take,
for the enduring threat posed by Islamic State, and for the Iran
nuclear deal that has spiked tensions with ally Israel.
Biden, who prides himself on being a full partner on Obama’s
national security team, would own all of it. “Foreign policy is a
liability for Biden,” Democratic strategist Douglas Schoen said.
 The Afghanistan shift was a personal setback for Biden, the most
influential voice in the administration pushing for hard timelines
for the removal of U.S. troops from the country. Clinton, by
contrast, favored a more robust military presence there during her
tenure as secretary of state during Obama's first term.
Clinton, whose status as the prohibitive front-runner wouldn't
change even if Biden jumps in, has distanced herself from Obama by
calling for more aggressive action in Syria and opposing the Pacific
Rim trade deal. As a sitting vice president, Biden wouldn't have the
luxury of distancing himself from Obama's policies, even if he were
so inclined.
“How does a presidential aspirant like Joe Biden reach for a bold
American foreign policy without fundamentally distancing himself
from his boss? It’s tough,” said Aaron David Miller, a former
official in the Clinton and Bush administrations who is now with the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
Obama’s approval ratings with the U.S. public on foreign policy have
tumbled since Biden stood at the Democratic National Convention
three years ago and pronounced, “Osama bin Laden is dead and General
Motors is alive.”
According to Gallup, Obama enjoyed about a 50 percent approval
rating on foreign affairs during his first term. That number fell to
36 percent this summer.
National security is often overshadowed in U.S. presidential races
by domestic issues, most notably jobs and economic growth.
But with the economy on a firmer footing that means it is not
drowning out other issues for voters, some Republicans such as U.S.
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida are trying to put more of a spotlight
on foreign policy.
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Rubio regularly blasts Obama on the campaign trail and said of
Biden: “He’s been wrong time and again on issue after issue."
“He would be a disastrous commander-in-chief,” Rubio told radio host
Hugh Hewitt in August, as speculation about Biden’s intentions began
to swirl.
Biden’s reputation took a hit when it was revealed that he had
advised against the U.S. military raid that killed bin Laden in
2011.
He was a firm supporter of a reduced U.S. role in Iraq, which the
administration’s detractors argue created a vacuum that strengthened
the rise of Islamic State. Biden also resisted arming rebel groups
in Syria.
Clinton recently called for a "no fly" zone in Syria, which both
Obama and Biden oppose.
Should he run, Biden “has to establish his own identity,” but to do
so he would have to highlight times when he privately disagreed with
Obama, said Anthony Cordesman, an expert on U.S. security policy at
the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Biden’s supporters say he could point to his decades in the Senate,
especially his years chairing the Foreign Relations Committee, to
counter Republican arguments that he would simply be an extension of
Obama's world view. For example, Biden has been friends for decades
with Benjamin Netanyahu. Obama, by contrast, has a frosty
relationship with the Israeli prime minister.
For more on the 2016 presidential race, see the Reuters blog, “Tales
from the Trail” (http://blogs.reuters.com/talesfromthetrail/).
(Reporting by James Oliphant; Editing by Caren Bohan and Leslie
Adler)
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reserved.]
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