|
 That's the warning from Ken Okuyama, high-end Japanese designer of
the Ferrari F60 Enzo and Porsche Boxster, who says game-changing
self-drive technology could threaten Japan's position as a major car
producer.
"If they don't watch out, they risk becoming just suppliers to those
(tech) companies," Okuyama told Reuters in an interview at his
industrial design studio in the Japanese capital ahead of this
week's Tokyo Motor Show.
Okuyama, who made his mark at Italy's fabled Pininfarina studio and
also redesigned the Chevrolet Camaro and Corvette, says taking on
Google and Apple will be the ultimate test for Toyota and other
mainstream automakers.
As writing code becomes as vital to car making as engineering,
Japanese automakers are under pressure to show they can compete with
the tech giants.
Google's fleet of self-driving cars includes a modified version of
Toyota's Lexus sport utility vehicles, in addition to the pod-like,
driverless Google Car prototype, both of which are being road-tested
in the United States. Apple could roll out a self-driving vehicle in
2019.
Honda, which on Tuesday said it was developing a new automatic
setting to be used in congested traffic, and technology to
pre-program cars to drive automatically, acknowledged the potential
threat from tech firms in the future.
"At this point, whether Google or Apple can come up with a car is
unclear," said Koichi Fukuo, president of research and development
at Honda. "But they are spending aggressively to recruit people to
achieve that and in that sense ... we can't rule out the possibility
they may eventually become a competitor."
MARKET TO SPLIT
As cars become more automated, Okuyama predicts the auto market over
time may split into two camps: vehicles that simply fulfill public
transportation needs such as self-driving taxis serviced by
ride-hailing applications; and super-luxury cars that will be trophy
items for the wealthy.
As a result, he says, car ownership will decline, decreasing demand
for affordable, traditional cars like Honda's hugely popular Civic
models.
"Automakers have used existing technology and road infrastructure to
create cars which have an emotional connection with drivers. This is
how they have been adding value to their products," Okuyama said.
"But cars have become commodity products, and, as such, they have to
become more functional and even more affordable," he said,
foreseeing a future where stripped down, minimalist 'commodity' cars
would share the roads with luxury vehicles.
[to top of second column] |
While this market polarization could be years away, Okuyama says
Japanese automakers must focus even more on finding ways for cars to
benefit from advanced technologies - an area where he says they have
lagged for years.
"Self-driving cars will eventually become commonplace ... as a
result, carmakers will have to sell not only the hardware, but also
the overall system to run the cars," he said. "Companies like
Mercedes and Toyota are looking at this, but Google is ahead in this
game."
To be sure, Japanese automakers are starting to show off their own
automated driving capability, with Toyota this month unveiling
automatic lane changing and merging functions on a Tokyo highway.
The world's largest car maker plans to market its first self-driving
car in 2020.
Honda and Nissan have also set 2020, the year of the Tokyo Olympics,
as a target date to bring advanced self-driving cars to the market.
Most automakers have focused on developing automated driving
functions, such as automatic braking systems, parking and
lane-changing capabilities which drivers can switch on or off.
Google and ZMP, a Tokyo-based robotics start-up which plans to
introduce a robot taxi service in time for the Olympics, are taking
automated driving a step further, developing cars with no steering
wheel or pedals - taking humans out of the driving equation
altogether.
Since returning to Japan in 2007 and starting his own design firm,
Okuyama, 56, has focused on urban planning and public transportation
projects, giving a facelift to some of Japan's 'bullet' trains and
designing a concept line of farm equipment.
But slick, fast luxury cars remain close to his heart, and the
high-tech sports cars Okuyama now designs for his own brand sit
firmly in trophy car territory. A bespoke model he plans to unveil
at the Tokyo show clocks in at a cool $1.3 million.
(Additional reporting by Maki Shiraki; Editing by Ian Geoghegan)
[© 2015 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.] Copyright 2015 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. |
