Harvest
2015
By John Fulton |
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[October 28, 2015]
Another rollercoaster ride cropping season is
about wrapped up in the central Illinois area. Harvest has reached
the level of “virtually complete” by mid-October. Low precipitation
levels and warm fall conditions caused rapid declines in crop
moisture levels, which created the only real sense of urgency in
harvest for many producers. A large number of acres were harvested
below moisture thresholds of 15% for corn and 13% for soybeans.
Yield levels were all over the board, even within fields. My general
comment for the year on the yields, particularly on the corn side,
is “better than I thought, but not what I hoped for.”
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 Reported yields for corn have been from 0 to 240 bushels per
acre. Some producers experienced a similar range in the same field.
Water was the main culprit in many low producing fields. Some were
drowned out, while others struggled through the spring and early
summer with saturated field conditions. The northwestern and
northern parts of Logan County, in particular, were affected by
field flooding, and the resulting lower yields. Creek system
bottomland fields were also impacted greatly. Reported yields for
soybeans have been from 0 to 84 bushels per acre. The same scenarios
existed for soybeans as mentioned for corn.
 Well drained fields, particularly those higher than surrounding
fields were the best for both crops. The variability makes it
difficult to estimate yields on a county-wide basis, but best
guesses for corn would fall between 170 and 185, while soybeans will
probably fall in the 60-something area. There were fields which were
never planted this year, and that is a rare occurrence in Logan
County. Rainfall reporting stations showed over 20 inches of rain
between June 1 and July 15 in the Emden and Atlanta areas, with a
comparison of about 15 inches for the same time period in East
Lincoln township.
While respectable, these yield levels will push producers
financially at the current market prices. Since June, estimates of
total revenue have decreased from $864 to $814 per acre for corn,
and from $600 to $543 per acre for soybeans (source Gary Schnitkey,
University of Illinois Ag Economist). The newer figures suggest $256
per acre for land cost and operator return for corn and $195 per
acre for soybeans. I encourage you to look further at the full set
of income and cost figures if you are using as background for
establishment of rent, as they may not all be applicable to your
situation.
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The National Ag Statistics Service will not publish average cash
rents by county for the current year. They are now on an
every-other-year cycle. The 2014 average was published at $308 per
acre for Logan County, based on their survey. The rents from
professional farm managers for the state of Illinois showed an
average decrease of 10.7 percent in cash rent figures from 2014 to
2015, showing a cash rent average of $334 for excellent ground (over
190 corn average), $282 for good ground (170 – 190 corn average),
$237 for average 150 to 170 corn average), and $192 for fair ground
(less than 150 corn average). These averages would be similar what
federal crop insurance 10-year-yields are, rather than what the crop
made in a particular year. It doesn’t take an accounting wizard to
figure out the higher cash rents are not able to be covered by
current income levels.
Projections for the coming year include somewhat stable income, and
somewhat decreasing input costs. The decrease in input costs
typically lags behind the reduction in income, and the inputs tend
to decrease at a slower rate as well. The income side usually shows
the same effects when the cycle reverses, with farm income ahead of
cost increases for a while. Effects of the downward trend are
evident in suppliers from equipment manufacturers to seed companies.
We certainly look forward to the next uptick in the cycle, as those
are more pleasant for all involved in agricultural production.
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