The
official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index(PMI) likely
edged up to 50.0 in October from 49.8 in September, according to
a median forecast of 20 economists in a Reuters poll.
Still, the expected improvement remained marginal, with the
reading at the 50-point mark that separates contraction from
expansion on a monthly basis.
Factory activity shrank in September for a second straight
month, albeit at a slower pace than in August.
"Stimulus measures continued to gain traction in October, which
would be conducive for large and state factories," said Zhang
Yiping, an analyst at Merchants Securities in Shenzhen.
To shore up growth, the government has cut interest rates six
times since November and lowered the amount of cash that banks
must hold as reserves four times this year. The latest cut in
interest rates and banks' reserve requirement came last Friday.
Beijing has rolled out a flurry of steps since last year,
including quickening spending on infrastructure and easing curbs
on the ailing property sector. The latter have helped revive
weak home sales and prices but have not yet reversed a sharp
decline in property investment.
Data released last week showed China's economy grew 6.9 percent
between July and September from a year earlier, dipping below 7
percent for the first time since the global financial crisis.
Some analysts hope the third-quarter cooldown could mark the low
point for 2015 as a burst of stimulus measures rolled out by
Beijing gradually take effect in coming months, but muted
monthly data for September kept such optimism in check.
The official PMI survey focuses more on larger, state-owned
firms while another private one on the small and mid-sized
companies, which are facing tougher financial and operating
conditions.
The official PMI factory numbers will be released on Sunday,
Nov.1, alongside the official services PMI. The Caixin/Markit
manufacturing PMI will be released on Nov.2.
(Reporting By Xiaoyi Shao, Jenny Su and Nicholas Heath in
BEIJING, and Shaloo Shrivastava in BENGALURU; Editing by Kim
Coghill)
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