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 More than 2,500 miles west in Mountain View, California, Chris
Urmson, head of Google Inc's <GOOGL.O> self-driving car program
since 2009, has a different view: A fully automated vehicle that
requires no input or intervention from humans is a safer choice, and
one that could be ready for production by 2020.
Partially automating a car can reduce certain accident risks, but
can also create new safety challenges not easily solved by current
technology. Urmson, one of Rajkumar's former colleagues at Carnegie
Mellon, said he worries that drivers could muff the handoff when an
automated system suddenly demands they start making decisions about
where to steer.
"The better the technology gets," he said, "the less reliable the
driver is going to get."
Google's all-in approach differs from the auto industry's strategy
on autonomous vehicle technology that will manifest itself in
vehicles consumers can buy over the next two to three years.
Mainstream automakers General Motors Co and Volkswagen AG and
newcomer Tesla Motors Inc are pushing down the road to automation
outlined by Rajkumar. They are accelerating plans to bring automated
driving to the market in stages, starting as early as this year. A
small group of Tesla owners is testing its "Autopilot" system that
will allow hands-free highway cruising and automated parking. Tesla
said it expects to offer the technology more widely later this year.
Technology that allows a car to park itself is already on the
market, and a growing number of vehicles are equipped with systems
that automatically apply the brakes, correct the steering or
maintain a set distance from a vehicle ahead in the lane.
The automakers' rush to partially automated driving is moving faster
than regulators can prescribe new rules of the road. Some experts -
Urmson is one - are concerned that drivers may not respond well to
cars that let them surrender control for long stretches.
Alerting a driver to retake control during an emergency is one of
the biggest safety challenges for manufacturers of partially
automated cars, industry officials and scientists said.
Depending on the level of automation and intensity of alert, some
drivers took an average of 17 seconds to respond to a takeover
request and regain control of the vehicle, in a study just released
by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and supported
by Google and several leading automakers and suppliers. In that
time, a car traveling at 60 miles per hour would travel more than a
quarter of a mile.
Time to respond and regain control was reduced to just a few seconds
when visual and audible warnings were accompanied by non-visual
alerts such as a nudge from a mechanism in the seat.
But "there were alerts that were missed" by some study participants,
NHTSA said. When drivers shift their attention to other tasks in a
self-driving vehicle, such as sending an e-mail, "their readiness to
respond to driving-related prompts and alerts can be delayed."
There's value in "driver assistance" features such as brakes that
engage automatically when the car's sensors detect an imminent
crash, Urmson said. But a fully automated vehicle "can be much safer
than a driver assistance system can ever be."
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The behavior of drivers in automated cars is one issue. Another is
the interaction between robot cars and those piloted by people.
Google's Urmson has highlighted that issue in dissecting the causes
of a series of incidents in which the company's self-driving cars
were hit by conventional vehicles.
REAR-ENDED
In an August 20 incident, a Google self-driving prototype was
rear-ended while stopped for a pedestrian in a crosswalk near the
company's Mountain View headquarters. At the time, the driver of the
Google vehicle had taken manual control after the car had begun to
automatically brake for the pedestrian. Urmson speculated that the
driver of the other vehicle may have glanced away while changing
lanes.
Unresolved questions aren't stopping automakers and automotive
suppliers from cashing in on partial automation, in part because the
incremental approach promises more revenue in the near term than
keeping technology in the lab.
Automotive technology companies such as Continental AG <CONG.DE> and
Silicon Valley names such as chipmaker Nvidia Corp are working with
automakers on semi-automated systems as well as supporting Google's
project. Last month, Delphi Automotive Plc, a global auto supplier
in the forefront of automated vehicle development, acquired
Ottomatika, a CMU spinout that originated in Rajkumar’s lab.
Semi-automated driver assistance systems are expected to add $3,000
or more to the cost of cars. There are no consistent estimates on
the cost of a fully automated vehicle.
The entire auto industry is waiting for highway safety regulators at
NHTSA to clarify their position on Tesla's Autopilot and similar
technology.
"The agency is in regular contact with the many companies that are
developing such technologies, and we are working with all of them to
help ensure that these innovations realize their safety potential,"
NHTSA said in a statement Aug 31.
In July, NHTSA chief Mark Rosekind said the agency is reviewing
federal vehicle safety rules that could affect self-driving
vehicles.
"We are trying to figure out if innovation will run up against
regulations," Rosekind said.
(Reporting by Paul Lienert and Joseph White in Detroit. Editing by
Joseph White and John Pickering)
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