The study, by researchers at the University of Pittsburgh and
Dartmouth-Hitchcock Norris Cotton Cancer Center, followed 694 people
aged 16 to 26 who said they definitely had no intention of smoking
cigarettes. Of those, 16 people, or 2.3 percent, were using
e-cigarettes.
After one year, six of the e-cigarette users, or 37.5 percent, had
begun smoking compared with 65, or 9.6 percent of those who were not
using e-cigarettes at the start of the trial.
Another five e-cigarette users, or 31.3 percent, were no longer
certain that they would not smoke cigarettes compared to 63, or 9.3
percent, of those who were not using e-cigarettes at the beginning.
A significant limitation of the study was the relatively small
number of people who were using e-cigarettes at the beginning of the
trial, making it difficult to be confident that the results would be
replicated in a larger e-cigarette user sample.
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The study, which was published online on Tuesday and is scheduled
for publication in the November edition of the journal JAMA
Pediatrics, is one of dozens of research projects seeking to shed
light on whether e-cigarettes are a net boon to society or a net
negative.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is weighing how heavily to
regulate the products, which some argue could dramatically cut the
rate of disease in traditional smokers if they were to switch to
e-cigarettes. Public health advocates fear they could introduce a
new generation of young people to nicotine and, potentially, act as
a gateway to cigarettes.
The latest study did not address whether the six e-cigarette users
who had transitioned to smoking were smoking on a routine basis,
whether they were using both e-cigarettes and cigarettes, or simply
experimenting.
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The authors attempted to adjust for variables that could have
accounted for the progression of some e-cigarette users to smoking.
The study found that people who were using e-cigarettes at the start
of the study were more likely to engage in sensation-seeking
behavior, and may have been more likely to take up smoking anyway.
But even adjusting for sensation-seeking tendencies, the association
between e-cigarette use and progression towards smoking remained,
the authors found.
"It will be important to continue surveillance among youth of both
e-cigarette use and overlap with use of other tobacco products,"
they wrote.
(Reporting by Toni Clarke in Washington; editing by Andrew Hay)
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