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 But there is little chance of such an outcome, which both main
party leaders ruled out in a television debate this week. European
officials have made such a mess of trying to sway past Greek votes
that they have largely given up trying now.
"There is some concern that Greece may end up with a hung parliament
and a weak government, but attempts at outside influence have been
consistently counterproductive in the past," said an EU official
involved in the bailout talks.
European officials console themselves with the belief that whoever
wins will have no option but to implement the pension, labor,
administrative and tax reforms required by the lenders because
Greece is on its final warning and desperately needs EU help to
restructure its banks and stay in the euro zone.
That too may be an illusion. Any new government is bound to seek
wiggle room to fulfill election promises to its supporters -
pensioners, farmers or organized labor. And Greece's position as the
biggest transit route into the European Union for refugees fleeing
Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan may give it some extra leverage with
Brussels and Berlin.
Ironically, Athens' best ally in the coming months may be the deeply
unpopular International Monetary Fund, which has made continued
participation in support for Greece conditional on European official
lenders agreeing to restructure its debt. Germany, with the biggest
exposure to Greece, is desperate to keep the IMF involved.
JUNCKER CIRCUMSPECT
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, widely judged to
have blundered last December when he warned Greeks against letting
"extremist forces" take the wheel through a "wrong election result",
has been more circumspect this time.
 He told the European Parliament last week that Greek leaders after
the Sept. 20 poll would have to "stand by their word and deliver on
the agreement - whoever governs.
"Broad support and timely delivery of the reforms is what Greece
needs, so that confidence can return both among the Greek people and
for the Greek economy," Juncker said in his State of the Union
address.
Critics say Brussels has frequently misread Greek politics in more
than five years since the debt crisis erupted in 2010, with a
tendency towards wishful thinking.
When leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called a referendum in
July to reject the bailout terms then on offer, EU leaders piled
public pressure on Greeks to vote 'Yes' to the deal or face economic
oblivion and a possible exit from the euro. Their warnings
backfired, fuelling a massive 'No' vote.
Then Tsipras performed a U-turn and accepted even more stringent
terms after Greece had to close its banks, impose capital controls
and ration cash to halt a bank run.
So when the then-premier called this election, days after signing a
memorandum on an 85-billion-euro third financial rescue on Aug. 19,
Juncker's chief-of-staff tweeted that the snap poll could broaden
support for the bailout.
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In Brussels' eyes, Tsipras had morphed from reckless radical to a
pragmatic strongman who had faced down Marxist hardliners, seen off
his conservative opponent - ex-Prime Minister Antonis Samaras - and
would now sweep to victory and implement the bailout plan.
Opinion polls suggest Greeks don't quite see it that way. Weakened
by defections among leftists and the young activists who propelled
him to victory in January, Tsipras' Syriza party is neck-and-neck
with the center-right New Democracy party.
Tsipras and new opposition leader Vangelis Meimarakis both excluded
working with each other in a three-hour television debate on Monday,
and there are good grounds to believe them.
Greek analysts say Syriza would lose the last of its
anti-establishment credentials if it collaborated with a party that
has ruled most often since military dictatorship ended in 1974.
New Democracy may vote for some of the reform legislation stipulated
in the bailout, but it has no interest in playing second fiddle to
Syriza in a government that is bound to face discontent as spending
cuts bite deeper.
In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, European Central Bank
Vice-President Vitor Constancio held out the prospect of an early
normalization of Greece's financial position if the new government
sticks to the bailout plan.
"The stage is set for a gradual dismantling of the capital
controls," Constancio said. "They will be eliminated as they were in
Cyprus."
He added that Greek debt should not be viewed in simple ratios to
gross domestic product - alluding to extending loan maturities and
grace periods - saying he expected EU and IMF views to converge when
debt sustainability is discussed in the first review of the new
program due in October or November.
"A haircut has been refused by the member states and I certainly
hope it will not be necessary in view of the numbers," Constancio
added. "The more one digs into the numbers, the more that sort of
conclusion seems to emerge."
(Additional reporting by Balazs Koranyi and John O'Donnell in
Frankfurt; Writing by Paul Taylor; Editing by Mark John)
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