Dollar under some pressure on Fed run-in

[September 17, 2015]  By Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro crept back above $1.13 on Thursday ahead of the most keenly watched policy decision in years by the Federal Reserve which is, on balance, expected to hold off from a rise in U.S. interest rates.

Traders and analysts are divided on the likely impact of a variety of combinations of tones and decisions by the world's most influential central bank.

However, in the absence of a rate rise, only an extremely dovish message seems to hold much danger for the dollar.

"If they do hold off, you are probably going to see some kind of (downward) reaction," said Ian Stannard, head of European FX Strategy at Morgan Stanley in London.

"We see any volatility around the FOMC as a buying opportunity on the dollar. Even if they don't go now, they are in the process of preparing the ground to do so. On that basis, any kind of dip in the dollar could prove short-lived."

Analysis by French bank BNP Paribas shows that a steady erosion of bets for more appreciation since March has left positioning on the U.S. currency flat, meaning relatively few longer-term players will be forced to sell if the Fed does not deliver a rise.

Early attention in Europe focused on the Swiss National

Bank, which made no changes to official interest rates that are already deep in negative territory.

There had been some rumors of another cut by the bank and the franc inched higher after the SNB's statement. UK retail sales may also have an impact on sterling after a bullish labor market report on Wednesday.

With the Fed firmly in focus, market participants took in their stride Standard and Poor's downgrade of Japan's credit rating by one notch to A+ late on Wednesday. The cut brings its rating in line with those of rivals Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings.

Investors also shrugged off data on Thursday that showed Japan's exports slowed for a second straight month in August, heightening fears that China's slowdown was increasing dragging on the global economy and reinforcing expectations that policymakers eventually would be forced to muster fresh stimulus steps.

The dollar was trading at 120.94 yen, up around a third of a percent from late U.S. trade. Against a basket of currencies, it was down just over 0.1 percent at 95.267, well above a three-week low of 94.913 plumbed on Monday.

"While the rates decision will be the initial focus, it may not be the decisive factor for markets," wrote Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac in Sydney, who says investors could also react to changes in the central bank's forecasts.

"We will also see quarterly projections of growth, unemployment, inflation and the funds rate. This should include upward revisions to GDP projections but a lower profile for interest rates," Callow said in a note to clients on Thursday.

(Additional reporting by Lisa Twaronite in TOKYO; Editing by Toby Chopra)
 

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